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NYMEX July natural gas futures dip 2.7 cents to $2.922/MMBtu on mixed market fundamentals

The NYMEX July natural gas futures contract fell Tuesday on mixed market fundamentals.

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As of 11:30 pm EDT (1530 GMT), the front-month contract was trading 2.7 cents lower at $2.922/MMBtu after moving between $2.917/MMBtu and $2.988/MMBtu so far in the session.

Kyle Cooper, analyst at IAF Advisors, said the market coming off was "surprising."

Prices have hovered in a range of $2.885-$2.962/MMBtu since July began trading as the front month, averaging $2.921/MMBtu so far. Prices averaged $3.037/MMBtu for the July strip for the same period of 2017.



"The market is showing resistance at the $3 level," Cooper said.

Record high production levels so far this year are one of the reasons prices have stayed below the $3 level, even with a 22% deficit in national gas stocks; the five-year average is $2.329/MMBtu.

Current working gas in underground storage sits at 1.817 Tcf for the week ended June 1, according to the Energy Information Administration.

US production fell 1.4 Bcf on the day to 76.8 Bcf Tuesday, largely due to production declines in the Rockies and the Northeast. Production is likely to rise to 77.9 Bcf/d over the next seven days, based S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates.

In the month to date, production is 78.3 Bcf/d, up 6.1 Bcf from a year ago.

The National Weather Service forecast for the next six to 10 days calls for the likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the country except the Rockies and Southwest regions, where cooler temperatures are expected.

Total US demand edged up 300 MMcf on the day to 72.3 Bcf Tuesday. Platts Analytics projects consumption to increase to 73 Bcf/d over the next seven days.

Total consumption stands at 71 Bcf/d so far in June, up 5% from a year ago.

--Veda Chowdhury, veda.chowdhury@spglobal.com
--Edited by Jonathan Fox, jonathan.fox@spglobal.com