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European natural gas: TTF, German near-term prices resume bearish trend

London — Dutch and German near-term prices fell sharply Friday morning as bearish sentiment resumed on a drop in demand amid rising temperatures across Europe, with market participants shrugging off ongoing outages on the Norwegian continental shelf.

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By midday London time, the TTF day-ahead contract was last seen trading at Eur18.10/MWh, tumbling 90 euro cent from Thursday's assessment.

The German GASPOOL contract was down 85 euro cent to Eur17.975/MWh while its NetConnect peer last traded at Eur18.575/MWh, down 77.5 euro cent.

Temperatures were forecast well above seasonal norms for the coming days. Custom weather forecast temperatures in Amsterdam at 3 degree Celsius above seasonal norms Friday rising to 4 C above norms Monday.



In Berlin, in the GASPOOL area, temperatures were seen at 2 C above norms Friday, increasing to 6 C above average Monday, while in Munich, in the NCG area, temperatures were seen at 3 C above average Friday, up to 4 C above average Monday.

Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch-German border were indicated lower at 97.15 million cu m/day at around midday London time, down from 102.87 million cu m/day Thursday, according to transmission system operator Gassco.

Three unplanned outages persisted on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Production from Kvitebjorn in the Kollsnes area was reduced by 9.6 million cu m/d within-day and by 9.8 million cu m/d day-ahead while production at Kristin in the Karsto area was reduced by 11.9 million cu m/d within-day and by 2.1 million cu m/d day-ahead, transmission systems operator Gassco said.

Furthermore, a new outage was reported at the Kollsnes processing plant with a within-day cut of 4 million cu m.

At around midday London time, Platts Analytics' Eclipse Energy forecast end-of-day consumption in the Netherlands at 127.9 million cu m Friday, inching down to 126.9 million cu m Monday.

Similarly, consumption in Germany was forecast at 373.3 million cu m Friday, falling to 359.3 million cu m Monday.

The short-term demand model is calculated from the latest demand, temperature and wind speed out-turns.

Storage withdrawals were seen picking up, with those into the Dutch network nominated at 81 million cu m/d Friday at 11:00 London time, up from 77.6 million cu m/d Thursday, according to Platts Analytics data.

Further out, front-month delivery contracts were also seen falling on the back of the bearish spot market.

The TTF March delivery contract was last done at Eur18.075/MWh, down 90 euro cent while the NCG and GASPOOL counterparts were down 62.5 and 60 euro cent each to last trade at Eur19.10/MWh and Eur18.725/MWh respectively.