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Russian draft energy strategy sees 23% of exports to Asia-Pacific by 2035

Highlights

The Russian energy ministry released a draft energy strategy to 2035 on Friday, which forecasts that 23% of all energy exports will be sent to the Asia-Pacific region by 2035.

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"The primary task is to speed up entry into Asia-Pacific markets," the ministry said in a statement outlining the key points.

Russia aims to send 32% of crude, and 31% of gas produced to the region by 2035.

Officials have long indicated that Russia is aiming to further diversify its export portfolio and ship greater volumes eastward.


"Energy markets in Europe and the CIS will remain key markets for Russian energy production, but export volumes after 2015 will fall, and by the end of the period will be 95% of 2010 levels," the statement said.

Russia currently ships around 6% of the gas it produces to the Asia-Pacific region, in the form of LNG from its Sakhalin 2 LNG plant, which has a capacity of 10 million mt/year.

Gas giant Gazprom is aiming to finalize a major deal for shipments via the Eastern route to China this year, which envisages supplies of 38 billion cubic meters a year to China from 2018. Gazprom has not ruled out increasing supplies to China to as much as 60 Bcm.

Russia's largest crude producer, Rosneft, is also increasing volumes of crude shipped to China, adding an additional 800,000 mt in 2013.

The company was supplying China's CNPC with 300,000 b/d of crude via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline under a contract signed in 2009, but last year agreed to increase volumes gradually to around 620,000 b/d by 2018.

Rosneft has also agreed to supply around 200,000 b/d over 10 years to Sinopec, with deliveries to start this year.

The draft strategy envisages increasing the proportion of oil products and petrochemicals to no less than 40% of exports by 2035.

Russia also plans to cut fuel oil exports from 57 million mt in 2010, to 20 million mt in 2035, while raising vehicle fuel exports to 58 million mt from 44 million mt.

Capital expenditure in the energy sector is also set to increase gradually to $793 billion between 2031 and 2035 from $460 billion between 2011 and 2015, according to the draft.

Ministry monitors indicate that development is by and large in line with the current strategy.

"Production, domestic consumption and export of energy resources is, on the whole, within or close to the forecasts in the Energy Strategy 2030," the statement said.

The draft forecasts growth in world energy consumption of 1.2% by 2035, compared with the previous estimate of 1.5% by 2030.

--Rosemary Griffin, rosemary.griffin@platts.com