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Dec EU carbon price recovers from one-month low as cold looms again

Highlights

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London — The front-December EU carbon dioxide allowance price rebounded from a one-month low in the week that ended Friday, but with little change to bearish sentiment amid low natural gas prices and concern over future demand.

EU Allowance futures contracts for December 2019 delivery on the ICE Futures Europe exchange rose to Eur24.60/mt by 1630 GMT Friday, after closing Monday at Eur23.39/mt.

Only the first week of October saw lower prices in the period since March. December closed at Eur23.85/mt on November 15.

The rebound for carbon also lifted German year-ahead power from a 15-month low posted at Tuesday's close, while TTF front-month gas prices inched higher week on week.

"Although European gas [storage inventories] are at record high levels, the situation might change if temperatures turn lower in December and January or we have a cold spell in spring and there is no agreement between Ukraine and Russia," Bernadett Papp, carbon market analyst at Vertis, said.

A technical rebound and stronger auction results also helped to stabilize prices.

Prices are expected to be rangebound next week, Papp added.

"Volatility and maybe volumes might be higher in December around the UK elections and if temperatures turn lower," the analyst said.

Demand for fossil-fuel fired power generation may increase further with French nuclear set for a record-low fourth quarter, offsetting bearish factors like mild and at times wet and windy weather.

"We will see a significant decline in 2019 verified emissions compared to 2018," the analyst said, driven by reduced demand from power generators, with the continent's economy slowing down, but avoiding falling into recession.

--Andreas Franke, andreas.franke@spglobal.com

--Edited by Kshitiz Goliya, kshitiz.goliya@spglobal.com