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Balkans hydropower production rises in Week 42 on back of higher demand

Highlights

Production flat in SRB, SK; up in RO, BG as reservoir output raised

Hydroelectric reserves fall to 6-month low in RO, 10-month low in BG

Hydro output seen still low; likely to rise next week after rains

Budapest — Hydropower production across the Balkans rebounded in Week 42 from the previous week's lows, as run-of-river output remained extremely low but reservoir production was boosted in response to higher demand, hydrological reports and ENTSO-E data show. Hydro production could be similar this week as far as river output is concerned, and an increase cannot be ruled out next week as rain is set to finally hit the region.

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Hydropower output in Romania (dominated by the Iron Gate power station) was 257 GWh last week, up 14% from the week before as run-of-river output barely changed but reservoir production increased markedly. Partly as a result, hydroelectric reserves fell by 4.7% week on week to 2.08 TWh, or 71% of capacity; showing the biggest weekly drop in eight months. In a year-on-year comparison, output and reservoirs increased by a respective 15% and 25%.

Danube flows entering Romania are forecast to remain little changed throughout this week, at about half of their usual October levels, the National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management said. The Danube downstream of Iron Gate will drop slightly.

In Serbia, which shares Iron Gate capacities with Romania, hydropower production was 89 GWh last week, 1% lower than the previous week's 14-month low. Output also fell in a year-on-year comparison, by 27%. Hydroelectric reserves totaled 366 GWh at the end of Week 41 (the latest period with data), up 1.9% from the week before but showing a 21% year-on-year drop.

Danube levels in Serbia are forecast to remain little changed or fall minimally this week, staying near record lows for this time of year, the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia said.

Hydropower output in Slovakia increased by just 4% week on week to 30 GWh last week from the previous week's three-year low; and was still 40% lower year on year. Output could be higher this week, as Danube levels affecting Slovakia are forecast to increase later this week, according to Hungary's National Hydrology Service.

Hydro production in Bulgaria increased by 35% week on week to 78 GWh last week, as river output increased only minimally but reservoir production rose by almost half. Output more than doubled year on year. Hydroelectric reserves fell further, by 3.1% week on week to a ten-month low 1.62 TWh, though still showing an 11% year-on-year rise. Bulgarian rivers are forecast to remain unchanged early on this week, but may briefly increase later owing to rain, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology said.

River levels across the region may soon get a boost as there will be significant rainfall throughout the Central European catchment area of the Danube toward the end of this week. Rainfall will reach about 15-50 mm in all but the lowest-lying regions, and may top 100 mm in parts of the Austrian Alps, according to Hungary's National Hydrology Service.

--Balazs Szladek, newsdesk@spglobal.com

--Maurice Geller, maurice.geller@spglobal.com