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UK prompt halts two-day gains on strong wind, stable demand

Highlights

UK day-ahead power prices declined on Monday, after rising for two consecutive trading days, as forecasts for higher wind power generation offset the bullish influence of a demand uptick and reduced French imports.

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Baseload power for Tuesday delivery fell GBP5 to close at GBP45/MWh, while the peakload day-ahead contract, which had gained nearly GBP15 on Friday, shed GBP12 to close at GBP48.90/MWh.

The UK base day-ahead auction settled well below the OTC market at GBP42.39/MWh, and the peak spot cleared at GBP44.78/MWh, according to N2EX and APX exchanges on Monday.

According to National Grid, peak wind power supplies are expected to rise above 5 GW on Tuesday, higher than Monday's peak forecast of 4.7 GW, while at the same time peak power demand is set to remain stable at 39.7 GW on Monday and Tuesday.

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A trader said the UK gas market is closely tracking power market fundamentals and price movements as "it has been the larger driver."

Lower supplies from other sources of energy, such as nuclear and continental imports, would likely mean the flexible gas-fired power plants in the UK would help meet demand, which increases gas-for-power demand.

On the supply side Monday, gas-fired stations generated nearly 16 GW of power, accounting for half of the UK's energy mix, while coal and nuclear plants produced 2.4 GW and 7.2 GW of electricity, the Grid data showed.

Wind output was seen at 2.6 GW at midday Monday and Dutch imports were at full capacity of 1 GW, with French imports dropping to zero in the morning, the Grid said.

Forecaster CustomWeather expects temperatures in London and many other parts of the UK to hover near seasonal norms in the next two days, but dip 1-2 degrees Celsius below average by the end of the week.