Register with us today

and in less than 60 seconds continue your access to:Latest news headlinesAnalytical topics and featuresCommodities videos, podcast & blogsSample market prices & dataSpecial reportsSubscriber notes & daily commodity email alerts

Already have an account?

Log in to register

Forgot Password

Please Note: Platts Market Center subscribers can only reset passwords via the Platts Market Center

Enter your Email ID below and we will send you an email with your password.


  • Email Address* Please enter email address.

If you are a premium subscriber, we are unable to send you your password for security reasons. Please contact the Client Services team.

If you are a Platts Market Center subscriber, to reset your password go to the Platts Market Center to reset your password.

In this list
Coal | Electric Power

European power prices set to rise 15% to 2025: Platts Analytics

Electricity | Energy | Electric Power | Emissions | Renewables

Global Energy Transition: What are the key drivers and hindrances?

Electric Power

Platts Market Data – Electric Power

Commodities | Energy | Electric Power | Renewables | Banking | Infrastructure & Utilities

Financing US Power Conference, 21st Annual

Natural Gas

DTE Midstream to buy gathering assets in Haynesville Shale for $2.25 billion

European power prices set to rise 15% to 2025: Platts Analytics

Highlights

Gas, CO2 strength drives inflation

German reliance on imports

Spain, Portugal buck trend

London — European power prices are forecast to rise by 15% in real terms between 2020-2025 on stronger gas and carbon values, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.

Not registered?

Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.

Register Now

The unit's latest five-year forecast sees German price gains outstripping all others, rising from below Eur42/MWh next year to over Eur56/MWh in 2025 as nuclear/coal closures make it increasingly reliant on imports.

"Strong renewable growth in Spain and Portugal means they become the region's discount markets from 2023 and are the only ones to see a net fall in prices in real terms over the period," the quarterly update said.

Average power price gains are underpinned by rising gas prices, with gas plant margins (Clean Spark Spreads) forecast to fall in allmarkets except Germany between 2020 and 2025.

Coal plant margins (Clean Dark Spreads) show some recovery between 2020 and 2023 but nevertheless remain below zero for all markets except Italy on an annual baseload basis.

France, the UK, Spain and Italy all see coal capacity phased out completely by 2025 while combined German coal and lignite capacity drops by 13 GW to 24 GW.

"Overall, western European coal capacity falls by 68% between 2020 and 2025," the unit said.

Related stories

Nuclear capacity falls by 19%, with Germany, Belgium and the UK accounting for the bulk of losses.

French nuclear capacity is stable over the period, with the only closure being at Fessenheim (1.8 GW), to be replaced by the troubled EPR at Flamanville 3 (1.6 GW).

Growth in wind and solar will fill the gap left by coal and nuclear but the shift signals higher price volatility.

"We have significantly lifted our view of wind and solar capacity to include the latest planned additions," the report said.

And following clearance of a capacity market design by EU and Italian authorities, the unit has revised the timing of Italian coal closures and included 5 GW of additional gas capacity out to 2025.

"A drop in our gas price forecast relative to coal vs our previous report as well as a higher EUA carbon forecast means we no longersee a late recovery in coal profitability by the end of our forecast horizon," it said.

-- Henry Edwardes-Evans, henry.edwardes-evans@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Jonathan Loades-Carter, jonathan.carter@spglobal.com