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Highlights

German Cal 20 falls to lowest since Nov 1

Coal, gas, EUA bearish

Italy, Spain lowest since summer 2018

London — European power prices for year-ahead delivery hit fresh lows Monday, continuing last week's bearish trend, with falls in emissions and fuel prices seen as the main drivers.

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"I think it's the bearish outlook as we approach the end of winter, everything is down coal, carbon... it doesn't seem to be one particular thing" a UK-based gas trade said.

"Bears and more bear" a power trader said Monday morning. "[The curve] is in free fall," another trader said.

German Cal 20 prices were last trading at Eur46.20/MWh down over Eur1 on the day and at their lowest since settlement of November 1's EEX the.

Spanish Cal 20 prices were at their lowest since July 5 at Eur54.70/MWh, while the Italian Cal 20 was last seen trading at Eur58.35/MWh, down from the previous settlement on EEX of Eur59.69 /MWh, the lowest front-year contract since June 26 when the prices dropped to Eur57.63/MWh.

Sources in the coal market cited factors outside of Europe, contributing to the drop, principally low demand in key Asian markets China and India.

The Dutch TTF Cal 20 was last heard trading on ICE at Eur19.46/MWh down over 30 euro cent from where S&P Global Platts assessed it Friday and down over Eur1.80 from its year-to-date high on January 18 and would be the lowest for a front-year gas contract since May 8.

CIF ARA thermal coal futures also opened lower on Monday. The year-ahead Cal-20 contract opened at $76.25/mt, $1.15 lower than Platts assessment on Friday.

EU emission credits were seen falling below Eur22/mt Monday morning, with a last trade at Eur21.99/mt.

-- Mario Perez, mario.perez@spglobal.com

-- Gary Hornby, gary.hornby@spglobal.com

-- Joseph Clarke, joseph.clarke@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Jonathan Dart, newsdesk@spglobal.com

Tighter EU carbon market set to prompt more power fuel switching in Europe

2019 is set to be the year that coal-to-gas switching in power generation takes off in continental Europe. Carbon prices supported by the new market stability reserve cutting supplies, coupled with potentially lower gas prices, could prompt unprecedented C2G switching volumes.

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