Singapore — Australia's wheat exports in the 2017-2018 (October-September) marketing year are expected to fall 24% year on year to 16.8 million mt, in line with lower production, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said in a report released on Monday.
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Last week, ABARES lowered Australia's wheat production estimates to 20.3 million mt from 21.6 million mt in its earlier estimates. If realized, this would be the lowest production since 2007-2008 for Australian wheat.
Drought and untimely rains which affected the wheat belt, especially in eastern Australia, led to lower yield, although a higher level of opening stocks helped buffer export volumes, ABARES said in Monday's report.
A fall in the global volume of high-quality hard milling wheat, which is produced by several countries such as the US, Canada and Australia amid reduced acreage and weather disturbances could help support the average export unit value of Australian wheat, ABARES added.
The average value for APW pool return in 2017-2018 is expected to be A$301($225.75)/mt, up from A$268/mt in previous year, ABARES said.
Platts APW was assessed steady from Friday at $225/mt FOB Australia on Monday, which was up 12.5% year on year amid lower supply.
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