London — Russian wheat's discount to Australian Premium Wheat was expected to grow as Black Sea sellers struggle to move prompt cargoes while domestic wheat demand in Australia remained strong.
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The discount between Russian 12.5% protein wheat and APW is at its widest point in three weeks, having risen $7/mt week on week.
The lack of buyers on the prompt for Russian wheat has seen traders roll their saleable cargoes to the following month, eroding large carries previously seen between months. At the beginning of November, offers for December-loading positions were heard at $231/mt while January was offered at $238/mt.
On Tuesday, H2 December offers fell to their lowest point in the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on July 1, at $225/mt. January-loading offers have shown resistance at $230/mt, although many sources expect that price to fall.
Meanwhile in Australia, supply tightness due to extreme hot and dry weather has seen pressure on crop yields, meaning less availability for internal and international consumption.
After China launched a probe into the dumping of Australian grain into China, prices dropped. But given the intense strength of fundamentals, prices have bounced back due to high domestic demand.
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Russia will likely keep a stranglehold of its market share in Southeast Asia due to the large and growing discount.
But it will face stiff competition from Argentina in December and January amid the latter's harvest and seemingly healthy-sized crop.
Moving into Q2 2019, it is likely that Black Sea originations will continue to dominate market share in Indonesia and Vietnam among other Southeast Asian destinations.
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