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CS Brazil H1 October sugar output expected to drop 48% on year: survey


Sugar's share of H1 Oct cane crush expected at 42.9%: analysts

H1 Oct anhydrous ethanol output seen down 34.2% on year: survey

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 1.363 million mt in the first half of October, down 48% on the year, a survey of 11 analysts by S&P Global Platts showed Oct. 21.

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According to the analysts surveyed, the cane crush is estimated to range from 17.1 million mt to 27.7 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 22.1 million mt, a 40.3% decrease on the year.

"The cane crush should drastically decrease for this fortnight because a large number of mills have already ended the season combined with a delay in harvesting induced by heavy precipitation in the Center-South," an analyst at S&P Global Platts Analytics said.

Weather in the Center-South was suboptimal for crushing during H1 October, with an estimated 4.9 day lost to rain.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 42.9%, down from 45.3% a year earlier. Although Brazilian producers were taking advantage of the recent high prices of hydrous and anhydrous ethanol, long-term expectations are for mills to continue to maximize their sugar production, given the increased profitability of sugar production over ethanol production.

Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent at 18.74 cents/lb on Oct. 21. The October NY11 sugar futures contract settled Oct. 21 at 18.94 cents/lb, providing a 0.20 cent/lb premium to hydrous ethanol in raw sugar equivalent.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 150.9 kg/mt, a decrease of 8.1% year on year.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 1.19 billion liters, a decrease of 42.7% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output from cane was expected to be 685 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 47.7% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output from cane in H1 October was expected to be 502 million liters, a decrease of 34.2% year on year, according to the survey.

Total ethanol output from corn is expected to be 139 million liters, an increase of 13.9% year on year. Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 89 million liters, an increase of 8.7% year on year, and anhydrous ethanol output in H1 October was expected to be 50 million liters, an increase of 25.2% year on year.

Industry association UNICA is expected to release its official production figures in the upcoming days.

CS Brazil Cane Production Data – 1H October 2021 (as of October 16)

Category Unit Survey Platts UNICA (2020-21) Y-O-Y** var. Vol. y-o-y**
Cane crush (million mt) 22.10 26.84 36.99 -40.3% -14.89
ATR (kg/mt cane) 150.90 148.00 164.21 -8.1% -13.31
Sugar output (thousand mt) 1,363 1,609 2,621 -48.0% -1,258.50
Ethanol total (million ltr) 1,187 1,468 2,073* -42.7% -886.00
Hydrous output (million ltr) 685 957 1,311* -47.7% -626.00
Anhydrous output (million ltr) 502 511 762* -34.2% -260.40
Sugar Mix (%) 42.90 42.50 45.30 -5.3% -2.40
Ethanol Mix (%) 57.10 57.50 54.70 4.4% 2.40

Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results, UNICA.

*corn ethanol excluded **Year-on-year change compares S&P Global Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2020-21