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USDA trims 2019-20 US corn output estimate


USDA cuts 2019-20 US corn acreage estimate to 89.9 million acres

Raises US corn yield estimate to 168.4 bu/acre from 168.2 bu/acre

Cuts US corn 2019-20 ending stocks estimate to 1.929 billion bu

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture expects US corn production for the marketing year 2019-20 (September-August) at 13.779 billion bushels (350.01 million mt), marginally down from its earlier estimate of 13.799 billion bushels, it said in the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Thursday.

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The production estimate was within market expectations at 13.44-13.83 billion bushels.

S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates corn production in the US to be at 13.677 billion bushels in 2019-20.

The USDA lowered its corn acreage estimate for the US to 89.9 million acres from 90 million acres forecast in September. The estimate for harvested acres under corn in the US was also lowered, to 81.8 million acres from 82 million acres.

Platts Analytics also estimates harvested acreage under corn in the US at 81.8 million acres. Market estimates for harvested acres under corn in the US are in the range of 80.8-82.02 million acres.

The department estimates yield for US corn to be at 168.4 bushels/acre, slightly up from 168.2 bu/acre estimated previously. The yield estimates are within market expectations of 166-168.7 bu/acre, and higher than the Platts Analytics' estimate of 167.2 bu/acre.

Corn production is forecast down 20 million bushels as a decline in harvested area will likely more than offset an increased yield forecast, the USDA report said.

USDA's export estimate for US corn was lowered to 1.9 billion bushels from 2.050 billion bushels.

"Exports are reduced 150 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and US price competitiveness," the USDA said.

The USDA cut estimates for the ending stocks of corn for the country to 1.929 billion bushels from 2.19 billion bushels projected in September.

Platts Analytics expects ending stocks for US corn in 2019-20 to be at 1.997 billion bushels.

USDA's estimate for corn used for ethanol for 2019-20 was lowered by 50 million bushels from the September projection to 5.4 billion bushels.


USDA's corn export estimate for Brazil for 2018-19 was raised to 39 million mt from the previous estimate of 38 million mt, while Argentina's export estimate was kept unchanged at 36 million mt.

According to the USDA, the 2018-19 local marketing year in Brazil and Argentina runs through March 2019-February 2020.

For the 2019-20 marketing year, USDA kept its production forecast for Brazil and Argentina unchanged from its September estimates, at 101 million mt and 50 million mt, respectively.

Export estimates for Brazil and Argentina during the 2019-20 marketing year also remained unchanged, at 34 million mt and 33.5 million mt, respectively.

The USDA kept global corn production estimates for 2019-20 largely unchanged at 1.104 billion mt from 1.105 billion mt projected in September.

-- Shikha Singh,

-- Edited by Shashwat Pradhan,

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