Global biodiesel production and consumption is forecast to rise by 14% from 2016 to 2020, driven by the fulfillment of current biofuel policies in the US, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and the EU, according to an Agricultural Outlook released late Monday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization.
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This amounts to an increase in production to 37.9 billion liters in 2020 from 33.2 billion liters in 2016 and an increase in consumption to 38.1 billion liters in 2020 from 33.5 billion liters in 2016.
Just under half of the rise in biodiesel production was expected to come from vegetable oil feedstocks, although waste-based production was forecast to grow by 53% to 4.4 billion liters. The growth in waste-based biodiesel is expected to continue mainly in the EU and the US.
The OECD also projects a more modest 5% increase in global ethanol production and consumption to 125.1 billion liters from 119.3 billion liters and to 126.1 billion liters from 119.9 billion liters, respectively, with sugar cane production in Brazil and Thailand making up around half of the growth.
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The report predicts a recovery in international prices for ethanol and biodiesel in nominal terms, considering developments in crude oil and biofuel feedstock prices.
Biofuel trade is expected to be limited, with most biodiesel exports flowing from Argentina to the US, while the majority of ethanol exports are expected to originate from the US, where the blend wall places a cap on domestic demand.
A variety of assumptions about biofuel policy through to 2025 were made, including that the US advanced biofuel mandate will expand and the biodiesel blender's credit will not be reinstated.
In the EU and Brazil, biofuel policy is expected to remain relatively unchanged, while Argentina is forecast to raise its biodiesel mandate and India to enforce an 10% ethanol (E10) mandate.
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