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S&P Global Platts Survey of Analysts Suggests U.S. EIA Data to Show 38-Bcf Build to Natural Gas Stocks

WASHINGTON , Nov. 14 2018 — The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday is expected to report a 38-billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week ended November 9, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets.

Responses to the survey ranged for a build of 28 Bcf to 45 Bcf. The EIA plans to release its weekly storage report on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST. A 38 Bcf injection would be more than the 13 Bcf-withdrawal in the corresponding week last year as well as the five-year average build of 19 Bcf.

An injection within analysts' expectations of 38 Bcf would increase stocks to 3.243 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). The deficit versus the five-year average would decrease to 605 Bcf while the deficit versus last year would contract to 532 Bcf.

The EIA reported a 65 Bcf injection for the week ended November 2. It grew inventories to 3.208 Tcf, which was 15.3% less than the year-ago inventory of 3.788 Tcf, and 16.2% less than the five-year average of 3.829 Tcf.

"The Lower 48 will most likely exceed the five-year average injection of 19 Bcf for the final build of the year,” said Kent Berthoud, a storage analyst with S&P Global Platts. "However, that's cold comfort as inventories are expected to peak this year at only 3.24 Tcf: 14% below the five-year average, and the lowest level in at least a decade. As the autumn shoulder season ends, temperature outlooks for the winter are mostly mild and no doubt, adding to some of the complacency surrounding the current storage deficit."

An early forecast for the week ending November 16, calls for a withdrawal of 113 Bcf, which is more than four times the size of the pull typically seen this week. This is lowest level to start the heating season since 2003 when stocks peaked at 3.18 Tcf.

The weekly analyst survey is conducted by S&P Global Platts' editorial team, and is published every Wednesday, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.

**In its weekly natural gas report, the EIA divides the U.S. into five storage regions: East, Midwest, South Central, Mountain and Pacific. The full listing of the states that comprise each can be found here.

S&P Global Platts Media Contact update

Americas: Kathleen Tanzy, +1 917 331 4607,
Asia: Melissa Tan, +65-6597-6241,
EMEA: Alex Brog, +44 20 7176 7645, and Russ Gerry, +44 207 176 3569,

About S&P Global Platts

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