Price activity for day-ahead power could unwind in the week's opening session Monday, Feb. 5, as traders consider predominantly softer demand outlooks for Tuesday.
Traders will also continue to watch natural gas markets for power price direction. Easing just 1.0 cent lower in the Feb. 2 session, NYMEX March natural gas futures were probed the upside ahead of the market open early Monday but ultimately returned to the red. At 7 a.m. ET the front-month contract was down 1.0 cent to $2.836/MMBtu on light short covering supported by mixed weather outlooks for the mid-range.
In step with the recent futures activity, day-ahead natural gas prices at the major consuming hubs could see a varied session Monday.
In terms of demand, forecasts suggest declining load in much of the country as the fresh workweek unfolds.
In the Northeast, demand in New England will likely top out at 17,650 MW on Monday and 17,300 MW on Tuesday, while New York load could reach highs at 21,551 MW at the return of the business week and 20,997 MW on Tuesday. To the south, demand in the PJM Western region is expected to crest at 62,036 MW on Monday and 60,073 MW on Tuesday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load should near 40,940 MW on Monday and 39,552 MW on Tuesday.
In the Midwest, PJM AEP region demand could peak at 19,700 MW on Monday and 19,609 MW on Tuesday, while PJM ComEd load will likely hit highs 14,116 MW on Monday and 13,925 MW on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, Texas load is projected to see highs at 44,469 MW at the start of the fresh workweek and 40,162 MW on Tuesday, while California demand is expected to touch a high near 29,400 MW on Monday and 28,600 MW on Tuesday.
In forward activity, pricing for March power was thoroughly mixed Feb. 2, as front-month natural gas futures that seesawed in trading implied fluctuations in fueling costs before ultimately ending the session with a downside bias.
In the East, power deals for March delivery were 75 cents lower in the low $50s in New England but about 40 cents stronger in the high $30s at PJM West. Transactions for April power were done in the low to mid-$30s at both hubs.
In the Midwest, the prompt-month power offering tacked on 40 cents in trades carried out in the high $20s at PJM Northern Illinois, while a similar product added almost 80 cents at PJM AD and picked up roughly 50 cents at MISO Indiana in transactions assessed in the low $30s at both hubs. April power was likewise marked in the high $20s to the low $30s overall.
In the South, price action for March power was unchanged in the high $20s at ERCOT North but about 10 cents to 60 cents lower in the low $20s into the low $30s at the rest of the ERCOT markets. Regional pricing for April power delivery spanned the high $20s to the low $30s.
In the West, California saw month-ahead power prices deflate by 75 cents at North Path-15 and falter by roughly 30 cents at South Path-15 to the mid- into high $20s, as front-month power values rose by more than $1 to the mid-$10s at Mid-Columbia and advanced by about 10 cents to the low $20s at Palo Verde. Price activity for April power was pegged in the low $10s at Mid-Columbia and in the low to high $20s elsewhere in the region.


Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
