Power prices across U.S. next-day markets leaned flat to predominantly lower Thursday, March 15, as prices at most locations saw no support from forecasts for slack Friday demand.
Following reports of a less-than-expected 93-Bcf net withdrawal from natural gas storage during the week ended March 9, the front-month April natural gas futures contract slipped Thursday and closed the session with a 5.0-cent loss at $2.681/MMBtu.
According to the National Weather Service, "A series of potent weather systems will bring several feet of snow to the California mountains, and up to a foot elsewhere across the west."
Looking at other supply, total U.S. nuclear plant availability rose to 88.48% early March 15 driven mostly by two units increasing output.
Mass hub values steady; PJM West eases
Price activity at next-day markets in the East was mixed Thursday as traders took into account varied Friday demand forecasts.
At the next-day markets, power prices at PJM West eased less than $1 and ranged in the mid-$20s, while deals at the New England Mass hub added close to $3 with power spanning the mid-$50s to low $60s.
Varied moves were noted at the day-ahead markets as deals at the Mass hub and New York Zone G rose by $4 to $5 from the midweek and averaged $57.44 and $34.50, respectively, while trades at New York Zone A and Zone J shed $1 to $3 from Wednesday and averaged $22.72 and $37.61. In addition, DAMs at PJM West added around a dollar and averaged $37.49.
Demand forecasts for the Northeast are mostly firm with load in New England seen topping out at 15,750 MW on Thursday and Friday, while New York demand may crest at 19,058 MW on Thursday and 19,119 MW on Friday.
Load forecasts in the mid-Atlantic are aimed lower. Demand in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region should run up to 37,247 MW on Thursday and 36,767 MW on Friday, while load in the PJM Western region might see peaks of 55,970 MW on Thursday and 54,994 MW on Friday.
Western power markets retreat in revised trade
Daily power markets in the West took a few steps back Thursday as values were pressured by slack weekend demand associated with next-day schedule revisions alongside lower Friday load.
Power markets in the West traded packages for March 16-17 delivery with typically subdued weekend demand working to pull down values.
The California ISO is calling for highs of 27,703 MW on Thursday and 26,981 MW on Friday. Bogged down by load, on-peak power prices at South Path-15 slipped by roughly a dollar and changed hands in the low $30s. In the Southwest, losses of around $2 were noted at Palo Verde and Mead, where power was traded in the low to mid-$20s at the former and the high $20s at the latter.
Markets in the Northwest continued the trend with Mid-Columbia and the California-Oregon Border both shedding about $2 from Wednesday and transacting power in the high teens to low $20s and the mid-$20s, respectively.
Texas DAMs rebound with strong demand outlooks
Robust Friday demand forecasts provided a boost to day-ahead markets in Texas on Thursday.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is forecasting peaks of 39,119 MW on Thursday and 44,453 MW on Friday. Boosted by load, day-ahead deals moved higher. Values at ERCOT Houston, ERCOT North and ERCOT South rose by $5 to $6 on the session and averaged $29.51, $27.04 and $28.57, respectively, while trades at ERCOT West surged by more than $10 and averaged $24.60.
Midwest DAMs mixed amid lower load forecasts
Pressures from declining demand forecasts left day-ahead power prices in the Midwest mixed Thursday. At day-ahead markets, transactions at PJM AEP-Dayton rose by roughly a dollar and averaged $37.50, while DAM trades at PJM Northern Illinois slipped by almost $5 from Wednesday and averaged $28.97.
In terms of load, demand in the PJM AEP region should near peaks of 18,422 MW on Thursday and 18,112 MW on Friday, while load in the PJM ComEd region could hit highs of 11,891 MW on Thursday and 11,878 MW on Friday.
Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
