Downgrade
The analyst had pegged Guaranty as a potential takeout target May 22, two days before the deal announcement. The bank has an "attractive franchise" and strong performance, which Rulis expected would draw in potential buyers.
The analyst sees the Independent deal valuation as appropriate and believes Independent is a "logical buyer with the scale, currency, footprint overlap and above average offer potential to be a strong suitor" for Guaranty, he wrote in the downgrade note.
Guaranty's stock has risen to approach the per-share deal value, and there is limited upside going forward for the stock, the analyst wrote.
Rulis noted that the pending deal would further limit investment options in Colorado-based banks. Rulis upgraded National Bank Holdings Corp., which would become one of the few remaining publicly traded banks based in the state, to "buy" in March.
