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WSI expects warmer-than-usual weather across southern US through June


Essential Energy Insights - February 2021


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Six trends shaping the industries and sectors we cover in 2021

Six trends shaping the industries and sectors we cover in 2021

WSI expects warmer-than-usual weather across southern US through June

From April through June, warmer-than-normal weather should grace the southern half of the United States, particularly Texas and the southern Rockies, while below-average temperatures are expected in the northern Plains and Northwest.

According to the latest outlook from The Weather Company released March 20, colder-than-normal weather is eyed for the Northeast, north-central U.S. and the Northwest in April. Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected in the Southeast, south-central U.S. and the Southwest during the month.

In May, cooler-than-normal weather should remain in place in the Northwest, with the remainder of the country called to see warmer-than-usual conditions.

"April is a shoulder month, which means the overall demand across the grid will be moderate. On the power load side, we are at a lull as well, which means the natural gas supply stack will be exposed to the renewable penetration on the grid," according to Jeff Richter, principal at EnergyGPS, which prepared the forecast in conjunction with The Weather Company.

EnergyGPS is forecasting higher wind power production year on year throughout the central U.S. including the MISO, SPP and ERCOT regions. "This is going to make the power burn component interesting to say the least as our expectation is for nominations to be stimulated by lower cash prices to help compensate for the renewable penetration, knocking off both natural gas and coal fired generation," Richter said.

In June, below-average temperatures are forecast for the north-central U.S. and the Pacific Northwest. Warmer-than-normal conditions is likely across the rest of the country for the month.

The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal temperature outlook on April 24.

For April through June, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration is calling for warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S., which should see equal chances of below-average, normal or above-average temperatures.