The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its power-sector coal demand forecast through 2019, as it expects natural gas to provide the largest share of the nation's electricity.
In its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released March 6, the agency projects the country's electric power production will average 11.2 million MWh/d in 2018 before increasing 1.1% in 2019 to 11.3 million MWh/d.
According to the report, coal will supply 28.6% of the nation's power in 2018, down from the prior forecast of 29.7%, to natural gas' share of 33.9%, up from the prior outlook of 33.0%. In 2019, the EIA projects that coal will provide 28.5% of the country's power to natural gas's share of 34.2%. The prior outlook had coal's 28.8% share behind natural gas's 33.9% share.
The government agency predicts delivered coal prices will average $2.20/MMBtu through 2019, while delivered natural gas prices average $3.41/MMBtu in 2018 and $3.43/MMBtu in 2019.
The EIA trimmed its 2018 power-sector coal demand forecast by 4.8% versus the prior outlook to 629 million tons, while it cut its 2019 projection by 2.0% to 633 million tons.
At the same time, the agency lowered its 2018 domestic coal production forecast by 3.2% versus the prior forecast to 736 million tons and lowered its 2019 outlook 2.2% to 745 million tons.
The agency lowered its 2018 year-end power-sector stockpile projection by 0.6% versus the prior projection to 132.3 million tons, while it lowered its 2019 year-end stockpile outlook 0.7% to 132.2 million tons.
The government expects 2018 U.S. coal exports to reach 80.6 million tons, down 1.0% versus the prior projection, while it lowered its 2019 export outlook 1.9% to 76.9 million tons.
