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Natural gas storage pull expected to come in below historical averages

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Essential Energy Insights - January 2021


Natural gas storage pull expected to come in below historical averages

The weekly natural gas inventory report to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 30 is expected to detail a withdrawal from storage that is below historical averages.

Analysts and traders surveyed are calling for a storage pull from 30 Bcf to 47 Bcf, with a consensus withdrawal pegged at 38 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 24. The latest figure will compare to a 43-Bcf year-ago pull and the 47-Bcf five-year average withdrawal.

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For the week ended Nov. 17, the agency reported a net 46 Bcf was pulled from storage, leaving total U.S. working gas at 3,726 Bcf, or 319 Bcf below the year-ago level and 121 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,847 Bcf.

Citi Futures energy analyst Tim Evans wrote in a Nov. 29 research note to clients that mild temperatures in many regions of the country during the report period suggest a bearish storage report "before the impact of the colder temperatures is felt."

Degree day data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the review week ended Nov. 25 reflects warmer weather that is less supportive of demand. For the period ended Nov. 25, heating degree days were 33.1% fewer than normal for the week and 20.4% fewer than the corresponding week in 2016.

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Furthermore, market sources have said that overall natural gas demand is likely to be impacted due to closures resulting from the two-day Thanksgiving holiday during the period under review.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.