The New York ISO expects the 41,013 MW of electricity supplies available to it to be enough to meet forecast peak demand in New York during the upcoming summer, unless a once-in-a-decade heatwave hits the state.
Released on June 1, the NYISO's 2017 summer assessment expects peak demand this summer to reach 33,178 MW when air conditioning on the hottest days drives energy consumption. This is a 3.0% increase above the 10-year average peak of 32,215 MW. Based on historical performance, the NYISO assumes net resources totaling 36,184 MW to be available during the summer peak.
In comparison, summer 2016 recorded a peak demand on August 11 of 32,076 MW, 0.4% below the 10-year average, and New York's record peak of 33,956 MW was set in July 2013 at the end of a week-long heat wave.
"We have sufficient capacity to meet load but we would be short of meeting load plus the reserve requirement for once-in-a-decade type heatwave conditions," said NYISO Vice President of Operations Wes Yeomans in a media briefing.
New York has a 2,620-MW mandated operating reserve for 2017. Combining peak demand forecast and the operating reserve results in a total capacity requirement of 35,798 MW under normal summer weather conditions of about 95 degrees Fahrenheit. Under baseline peak weather conditions, NYISO expects the grid to have a capacity margin surplus of more than 386 MW, on top of the 2,620 MW of operating reserves.
Peak demand could increase to approximately 35,488 MW if a heatwave occurs with prolonged temperatures of 100 degrees. In such extreme weather conditions, the state could fall short of its capacity margin requirement by about 1,924 MW. However, the operator does not expect any involuntary load curtailment thanks to up to 3,083 MW available under emergency procedures, including industrial curtailments, demand response programs, public appeals to cut consumption and emergency purchases from neighboring power markets.
Of the 41,013 MW of power resources that are expected to be available during the summer, 37,609 MW of the generating capacity comes from power plants within New York, another 1,191 MW from demand response resources and 2,213 MW from net purchases and sales from neighboring regions capable of supplying energy to New York.