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US retail electricity sales should extend higher in 2018, 2019

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US retail electricity sales should extend higher in 2018, 2019

Unchanged from its prior monthly outlook, retail electricity sales in the U.S. are anticipated to climb through 2019 to average 10.34 million MWh per day.

The latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released Feb. 6 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows retail power sales are expected to rise 205,000 MWh/d to 10.29 million MWh/d this year. Of this 2018 total, 38.0% will go to residential customers, 36.2% will go to commercial customers and 25.7% will go to industrial customers.

The EIA predicts that sales in 2019 to residential, commercial and industrial customers will account for 37.9%, 36.2% and 25.7% of U.S. retail sales, respectively.

The agency projects power production will average 11.1 million MWh/d in 2018 before increasing 0.8% in 2019 to 11.2 million MWh/d.

According to the outlook, coal will supply 29.7% of the country's electricity in 2018, natural gas will provide 33.0% and nuclear generation will supply 19.6%, in line with the prior monthly forecast. The EIA projects renewable resources will provide 16.5% of the nation's power, with hydro generation supplying 746,000 MWh/d and other renewable resources accounting for 1.1 million MWh/d.

The EIA forecasts that in 2019, coal will provide 28.8% of the country's power to natural gas' share of 33.9%. The prior forecast had coal's 28.1% share behind natural gas' 34.3% share. In 2019, nuclear generation is likely to provide 19.2% of the nation's electricity, while renewable resources should supply 17.0%.

Declining 0.8% in 2017, the EIA said total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to rebound 1.8% this year and increase 0.4% in 2019.