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AM Power Report: Dailies could diverge with load projections

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AM Power Report: Dailies could diverge with load projections

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Price action for next-day power could be jumbled Tuesday, May 22, in tandem with varied demand expectations for midweek.

Traders will also watch choppy natural gas markets for direction Tuesday. Slipping 3.7 cents in the May 21 trading day, NYMEX June natural gas futures were aimed higher early Tuesday, tacking on 2.3 cents to $2.8333/MMBtu.

On the demand side, load forecasts for midweek are mixed.

In the Northeast, demand in New England should near 14,140 MW on Tuesday and 14,700 MW on Wednesday while New York load is poised to peak at 17,578 MW on Tuesday and 18,899 MW on Wednesday. To the south, PJM Western region demand could crest at 54,212 MW on Tuesday and 53,226 MW on Wednesday while load in PJM Mid-Atlantic could top out at 34,731 MW on Tuesday and 35,867 MW in the middle of the workweek.

In the Midwest, PJM AEP region load is called to reach 17,859 MW on Tuesday and 16,710 MW on Wednesday while demand in PJM ComEd is seen reaching highs at 11,358 MW on Tuesday and 12,230 MW at midweek.

In the South, load in Texas is expected to touch a high near 57,227 MW on Tuesday and 60,217 MW on Wednesday. In the West, California load could see highs at 28,521 MW on Tuesday and 28,325 MW on Wednesday.

In forward trade, June power pricing was choppy with a dominant downside bias in the week's opening session, as deflating front-month natural gas futures drove fueling costs lower.

In the East, the power offering for June was up 5 cents in the high $20s in New England but almost 40 cents weaker in the low $30s at PJM West. July power was valued in the high $30s at both hubs.

In the Midwest, prompt-month power deals fell by nearly 40 cents to the mid-$30s at PJM AD, while similar transactions reported in the low $30s notched a roughly 20-cent decline on the day at PJM Northern Illinois but an approximately 20-cent gain at MISO Indiana. Along the forward curve, power trades for July were assessed in the high $30s to the low $40s overall.

In the South, an almost $5 decrease steered ERCOT North June to the high $60s, as hub activity for July power ran through the low $120s.

In the West, Mid-Columbia saw June power lifted by 60 cents to the high $10s, while Palo Verde June was unchanged in the high $30s and South Path-15 June was off 80 cents on the day in the low $30s. Power products for July were quoted in the low $30s at Mid-Columbia, the high $40s at Palo Verde and the low $50s at South Path-15.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.