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US day-ahead power markets biased lower with mixed load forecasts

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas and electricity markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Day-ahead electricity markets across the U.S. capped off the Thursday, May 31, session mixed to ultimately lower as traders took into account forecasts for varied Friday demand.

Following reports of a 96-Bcf net injection to natural gas storage during the week ended May 25, which was below consensus estimates and mixed against historical averages, the front-month July gas futures contract managed to extend an early uptick and closed the session with a 6.7-cent gain at $2.952/MMBtu.

Owing to a curtailment at PG&E Corp.'s Diablo Canyon 1 in California, total U.S. nuclear plant availability slipped to 96.03% early May 31.

East prices swing higher; New York Zone A slips

Power values at day-ahead markets in the Northeast were biased higher Thursday following outlooks for strong Friday demand.

In terms of load, demand in the Northeast is expected to rise ahead of the weekend. Demand in New England should top out at 16,750 MW on Friday, up 1,750 MW from Thursday. Supported by load, day-ahead values at the New England Mass hub added about $3 and averaged $32.62.

In New York, demand may crest at 22,542 MW on Friday, rising more than 2,400 MW from Thursday. However, day-ahead packages were slightly mixed as values at New York Zone G and Zone J rose roughly $7 to $8 on the session and averaged $36.95 and $38.53, respectively, while DAMs at Zone A slipped about $5 but still managed to post an average above $100 at $119.29.

Conversely, PJM regions in the mid-Atlantic should see varied load for Friday. The PJM Mid-Atlantic region is expected to see a peak Friday near 43,901 MW, up more than 6,400 MW from Thursday, while the PJM Western region should see load run up to 60,708 MW on Friday, down more than 8,800 MW from Thursday.

PJM declared a Hot Weather Alert for the Southern and Mid-Atlantic regions from 7 a.m. ET to 10 p.m. ET on Friday, June 1.

Texas DAMs flounder on lower load outlooks

Slightly lower Friday load forecasts sent day-ahead markets in Texas tumbling on Thursday.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is forecasting a Friday peak of 67,619 MW, down less than 170 MW from Thursday. However, the modest decrease in demand still led day-ahead markets in the region to losses of roughly $14 to $16 from Wednesday, with ERCOT Houston, ERCOT North, ERCOT South and ERCOT West averaging $41.68, $43.12, $41.79 and $39.13, respectively.

Midwest markets see no load support ahead of weekend

Markets in the Midwest saw no support Thursday from expectations of subdued Friday demand.

Demand in the PJM AEP region is projected to near a Friday high of 19,444 MW, down more than 680 MW from Thursday, while load in the PJM ComEd region should touch a Friday peak of 13,265 MW, falling more than 4,900 MW from Thursday.

Western power markets supported by demand as weekend draws near

Power markets along the West Coast found some modest support Thursday in the form of higher Friday demand forecasts.

The California ISO is calling for load to hit a Friday high of 28,314 MW, up roughly 340 MW from Thursday.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.