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Eastern US power values rise ahead of nor'easter; Midwest, West dailies tumble

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Eastern US power values rise ahead of nor'easter; Midwest, West dailies tumble

With the exception of deals done in the East, the price of power at U.S. next-day markets was biased lower Thursday, March 1, owing to pressures from mixed Friday demand forecasts and variations in regional weather.

Following reports of a 78-Bcf net withdrawal from natural gas storage during the week ended Feb. 23, which was above consensus estimates but lower than historical averages, the front-month April natural gas futures contract closed the session with a 3.1-cent gain at $2.698/MMBtu.

The National Weather Service notes that two significant storms are set to hit parts of the East and West U.S., bringing heavy rain, snow and gusty winds. The National Weather Service adds that coastal flooding may be possible in parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

In other supply, total U.S. nuclear plant availability slipped to 91.26% early March 1.

East dailies notch gains as nor'easter approaches

Daily power prices in the East moved higher Thursday as traders took into account outlooks for mostly elevated Friday demand with an approaching storm.

At next-day markets, power prices at PJM West added roughly $5 on the session and spanned the low $30s, while packages at the New England Mass hub gained almost $2 and ranged in the high $20s.

Mixed to predominantly higher moves defined day-ahead trading in the Northeast. New York Zone G and Zone J day-ahead deals were $1 to $2 higher from the midweek and averaged $26.08 and $33.63, respectively, while New York Zone A packages were flat to Wednesday and averaged $21.01. DAM deals at the Mass hub shed more than a dollar and averaged $25.15.

Load is set to rise in the Northeast with demand in New England possibly topping out at 15,190 MW on Thursday and 15,770 MW on Friday while demand in New York should crest at 18,773 MW on Thursday and 19,033 MW on Friday.

Conversely, PJM regions in the mid-Atlantic should see diverging demand. Load in the PJM Mid-Atlantic region should touch peaks of 33,293 MW on Thursday and 35,784 MW on Friday while load in the PJM Western region might run up to 51,444 MW on Thursday and 51,165 MW on Friday.

Western power markets retreat in revised trade

Slack weekend demand associated with next-day schedule revisions alongside subdued Friday demand fueled losses in the West on Thursday.

In California, power at South Path-15 changed hands in the low $30s, down roughly $2 from the midweek. In the Northwest, on-peak trades at Mid-Columbia were quoted in the low $20s, shedding about $3 from Wednesday. In the Southwest, Palo Verde transactions eased by around a dollar with power priced in the mid- to high $20s.

Demand in California may reach 29,185 MW on Thursday and 28,295 MW on Friday with load projected to fall even harder over the weekend.

The California ISO declared restricted maintenance operations for the Southern California area from Feb. 28 at 10 p.m. PT to March 1 at 11:59 p.m. PT due to natural gas curtailments in the area.

Midwest values move lower with varied load forecasts

Dailies in the Midwest ticked slightly lower Thursday as values saw little support from varied Friday demand forecasts.

MISO Indiana noted the bulk of Thursday's action with power packages falling by more than $5 to the low $30s.

In terms of load, demand in the PJM AEP region should near peaks of 15,680 MW on Thursday and 15,991 MW on Friday, while demand in the PJM ComEd region could hit highs of 12,535 MW on Thursday and 11,894 MW on Friday.

Texas day-ahead markets firm despite slack demand outlooks

Day-ahead markets in Texas leaned flat to higher Thursday despite forecasts for lower Friday demand.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is projecting highs of 40,487 MW on Thursday and 40,143 MW on Friday. However, day-ahead deals at ERCOT Houston, ERCOT North, ERCOT South and ERCOT West rose by far less than a dollar to averages of $23.20, $22.98, $23.03 and $22.91, respectively.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.