It is a race for the top of the domestic box office for the weekend of Sept. 20, pitting machine guns, space ships and a bit of British gentility against one evil clown.
"It: Chapter 2" from AT&T Inc.'s Warner Bros., which is in its third weekend, will be challenged by three new contenders, including action film "Rambo: Last Blood"; the film adaptation of British TV drama "Downton Abbey"; and Brad Pitt sci-fi flick "Ad Astra." Forecasters are split on which will bring in the most money over the weekend.
"Downton Abbey" could charm its way to as much as $25 million, based on ticket presales that are outpacing "Rambo: Last Blood" by 7x, according to Deadline Hollywood. BoxOffice.com also thinks it will best the competition with an opening forecast of $24 million. Variety, on the other hand, believes "Downton Abbey" will secure a dowry in the range of $16 million to $20 million, likely falling a little short of the other debut films.
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Though it garnered plenty of praise from critics, "Ad Astra" seems to be the odd film out — and way out, as it chronicles the journey of a man searching for clues about his missing father through time and space. BoxOffice.com puts it at the bottom of the debuts with an opening at $16.8 million, as does Deadline, with a forecast for the weekend in the "mid- to high-teen millions." However, Variety puts it in orbit with "Downton Abbey," giving it a shot at $20 million, on the high end.
That could be a tough opening for a movie that cost about $80 million in production, according to Deadline. The title compares to sci-fi dramas like "Gravity," "The Martian" and "Interstellar," according to a list of comparisons compiled by Kagan, a media market research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence, but each of those big-margin blockbusters opened well above forecasts for "Ad Astra." The film, which co-stars actors Tommy Lee Jones and Liv Tyler, is running closer to 2016's "Passengers," starring Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. That sci-fi flick opened to $14.9 million against a $111.3 million budget but still eked out net profits of $32.1 million, according to Kagan.
"Ad Astra," distributed by The Walt Disney Co.'s 20th Century Fox," had an 80% "Certified Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 10:30 a.m. ET, Sept. 20.
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.'s "Last Blood" could fair a little better, based on other recent Stallone action efforts. "Rocky Balboa," the 2006 installment in the "Rocky" franchise, opened to just $12.2 million but collected total revenue of $294.2 million and net profits of $131.7 million, according to Kagan. Also, 2010's "The Expendables," packed with a cast of '80s action actors alongside Stallone, opened to $34.8 million and exited with total revenue of $405.2 million and net profits of $116.5 million. "Rambo" in 2008 entered profitable territory as well, after an opening of $18.2 million.
However, critics were shooting Stallone's newest sequel down, earning it a 35% "rotten" rating on the film on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Sept. 20.
Focus Features' "Downton Abbey" will target a more genteel audience who followed the hit TV show on PBS in the United States. The film includes much of the same cast of actors, and it compares to other TV-to-film adaptions like "Sex and the City," "Miami Vice" and "Charlie's Angels," according to Kagan. The average opening for Kagan's comparisons came to $28.7 million against an average budget of $72.9 million. That led to an average total revenue of $329.3 million and average net profits of $68.3 million, which could bode well for the debut.
Critics doffed their top hats to the film, giving it an 84% "Certified Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
For its third weekend, forecasters are expecting "It: Chapter 2" to scare up about $20 million.


"Downton Abbey"