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Final 'Mission: Impossible' looking to out-maneuver predecessors

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Final 'Mission: Impossible' looking to out-maneuver predecessors

Tom Cruise will rappel back into the summer box office with a new Mission: Impossible installment on July 27.

Slated as the last in the franchise, "Mission: Impossible - Fallout" could land the largest opening of them all, though it also shoulders the largest budget.

The sixth film is receiving scattershot forecasts, with Variety estimating an opening in the $50 million to $65 million range. The Hollywood Reporter pulls in the slack a bit with a range of $52 million to $57 million. BoxOffice.com, meanwhile, lobs a bomb with a mammoth $70 million forecast.

SNL Image"Mission: Impossible - Fallout"
Source: Paramount

The upper half of that scale would put the title above its predecessors, which topped out at $57.8 million in 2000 with "Mission: Impossible II." After a slump in interest, the franchise saw a return to form in 2015 with "Rogue Nation," which opened to $55.5 million. Interestingly, 2011's "Ghost Protocol" opened to just $29.6 million, but it went on to be the most profitable of the group, exiting theaters with $364.7 million in net income, despite having a production budget and domestic marketing budget in line with its predecessors, according to data from Kagan, a media research group inside S&P Global Market Intelligence.

With a budget of $178 million, run up in part by a delay after Cruise broke his foot on set, "Fallout" will also test the bone density of the franchise's profitability. The average total box office revenue for the previous five films was $728.1 million yielding average net profit of $269.4 million. The average "Mission: Impossible" budget was $132.1 million.

Turbocharging the action movie's prospects, "Fallout" is carrying the highest Rotten Tomatoes score over its predecessors, with a 98% "Certified Fresh" rating as of 9 a.m. ET on July 27.

"Teen Titans Go! To the Movies" is also running a strong Rotten Tomatoes score at 88% "fresh" and looking at a debut weekend between $13 million and $19 million, according to Variety. The Hollywood Reporter tightens that range on the low end with a $13 million to $15 million forecast. BoxOffice.com, as before, shoots higher with $17.5 million.

The animated film spins out of the popular children's TV series, with Nicolas Cage, Will Arnett and Kristen Bell adding their voices. The family-friendly flick about a group of teen superheroes that try to star in a Hollywood film amid the modern popularity of superhero flicks compares well to a line of other animated spinoffs like "The LEGO Batman Movie," the SpongeBob SquarePants films and "Rugrats Go Wild!," according to a list of comparisons compiled by Kagan.

Those saw an average opening of $36.8 million, average total box office revenue of $345.8 million and average net profits of $90.4 million. AT&T Inc.'s Warner Bros. will look to avoid the fate of "Mr. Peabody and Sherman," which opened to $32.2 million against a big $146.7 million budget and exited as the only comparison in the red with a $400,000 loss.

In the prior weekend, "Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again" came up short against Denzel Washington's "Equalizer 2" in a surprising upset. "Here We Go Again" managed to meet the low end of expectations with a $34.4 million opening, according to Deadline Hollywood, but "Equalizer 2" vaulted over forecasts with $35.8 million. The two films are each expected to draw between $15 million and $17 million in their second weekends, according to BoxOffice.com.

SNL Image