Two new films from MGM Studios Inc. and 21st Century Fox Inc.'s film studio will launch over the weekend of March 2, but for a third weekend in a row the debut competition will get swatted down by Walt Disney Co.'s lucky black cat.
"Black Panther" continues to maul the box office with a nine-figure second weekend and forecasters predict a third weekend as high as $75 million, putting it in the record books alongside "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," "Jurassic World," "Hunger Games" and other massive blockbusters.
"Red Sparrow" Source: 20th Century Fox |
Expectations suggest a third "Black Panther" weekend will easily outperform the period's debut films: Jennifer Lawrence spy thriller "The Red Sparrow" and a reboot of 1974 vigilante film "Death Wish." Those two titles are neck and neck for forecasters, but both are tracking generally below $25 million, with some projections putting them below $20 million.
BoxOffice.com believes "Death Wish" will outearn "Red Sparrow" at opening, but just barely, putting a $19.5 million forecast on the former and a $19.0 million forecast on the latter. Variety, meanwhile, has the opposite take, putting a range of $15 million to $19 million on "Red Sparrow," above its range for "Death Wish" at $14 million to $16 million. Deadline Hollywood is less specific, noting that the studios forecast each movie to open in the "mid-teens," but it adds a bullish note, saying "Red Sparrow" could go as high as $24 million and "Death Wish" could go as high as $20 million.
"Red Sparrow" will not likely see anywhere near the success of "Hunger Games," which also starred Lawrence. Rather it should compare better to recent female-led action title "Atomic Blonde" or the 2010 Angelina Jolie action film "Salt." Those films opened at $18.3 million and $36.0 million, respectively. "Salt" carried a whopping $131.1 million production budget, far ahead of "Atomic Blonde" at $30.3 million and debut "Red Sparrow" at $69 million, according to Box Office Mojo. If "Red Sparrow" opens in the $20 million range, it may not bode well for the film since "Atomic Blonde's" theatrical tour was unprofitable.
Turning to "Death Wish," a list of similar titles compiled by Kagan, a media research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence, includes films like "A Good Day to Die Hard," "The Equalizer" and "Red Dawn." That list saw an average opening gross of $20.2 million, potentially within reach for "Death Wish," but on average those films fell short of profitability by $14.7 million as they exited theaters. Yet the average production cost for the group was $80.2 million, well above "Death Wish's" production budget of $30 million.
Neither debut film has been revered by critics. "Red Sparrow" was running a 51% "rotten" score on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 12 p.m. ET, March 2, but still far better than a 14% "rotten" score for "Death Wish."

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