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Record-breaking 'Black Panther' to maul 'Red Sparrow,' 'Death Wish' debuts

Two new films from MGM Studios Inc. and 21st Century Fox Inc.'s film studio will launch over the weekend of March 2, but for a third weekend in a row the debut competition will get swatted down by Walt Disney Co.'s lucky black cat.

"Black Panther" continues to maul the box office with a nine-figure second weekend and forecasters predict a third weekend as high as $75 million, putting it in the record books alongside "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," "Jurassic World," "Hunger Games" and other massive blockbusters.

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"Red Sparrow"
Source: 20th Century Fox

Expectations suggest a third "Black Panther" weekend will easily outperform the period's debut films: Jennifer Lawrence spy thriller "The Red Sparrow" and a reboot of 1974 vigilante film "Death Wish." Those two titles are neck and neck for forecasters, but both are tracking generally below $25 million, with some projections putting them below $20 million.

BoxOffice.com believes "Death Wish" will outearn "Red Sparrow" at opening, but just barely, putting a $19.5 million forecast on the former and a $19.0 million forecast on the latter. Variety, meanwhile, has the opposite take, putting a range of $15 million to $19 million on "Red Sparrow," above its range for "Death Wish" at $14 million to $16 million. Deadline Hollywood is less specific, noting that the studios forecast each movie to open in the "mid-teens," but it adds a bullish note, saying "Red Sparrow" could go as high as $24 million and "Death Wish" could go as high as $20 million.

"Red Sparrow" will not likely see anywhere near the success of "Hunger Games," which also starred Lawrence. Rather it should compare better to recent female-led action title "Atomic Blonde" or the 2010 Angelina Jolie action film "Salt." Those films opened at $18.3 million and $36.0 million, respectively. "Salt" carried a whopping $131.1 million production budget, far ahead of "Atomic Blonde" at $30.3 million and debut "Red Sparrow" at $69 million, according to Box Office Mojo. If "Red Sparrow" opens in the $20 million range, it may not bode well for the film since "Atomic Blonde's" theatrical tour was unprofitable.

Turning to "Death Wish," a list of similar titles compiled by Kagan, a media research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence, includes films like "A Good Day to Die Hard," "The Equalizer" and "Red Dawn." That list saw an average opening gross of $20.2 million, potentially within reach for "Death Wish," but on average those films fell short of profitability by $14.7 million as they exited theaters. Yet the average production cost for the group was $80.2 million, well above "Death Wish's" production budget of $30 million.

Neither debut film has been revered by critics. "Red Sparrow" was running a 51% "rotten" score on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 12 p.m. ET, March 2, but still far better than a 14% "rotten" score for "Death Wish."

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For custom film data pulls with dozens of data points available, please contact Derek Baine (Derek.Baine@spglobal.com).