The natural gas inventory report to be released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 22 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration could show a pull that is mixed against historical averages.
Market analysts and experts surveyed expect the data, which is reflective of the week ended Feb. 16, will detail a withdrawal from 105 Bcf to 128 Bcf, with a consensus pegged at a 116-Bcf pull. The figure will compare to the 92-Bcf year-ago withdrawal and the 145-Bcf five-year average pull.
For the week ended Feb. 9, the EIA reported a larger-than-expected 194-Bcf withdrawal from storage that left total U.S. natural gas supply at 1,884 Bcf, or 577 Bcf below the year-ago level and 433 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,317 Bcf.
Looking at the demand side of the equation from the weather, degree day data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the review week ended Feb. 17 shows heating degree days were 10.5% more than normal for the same week in 2017 but 15.9% less than average for the period.
If net pulls match the five-year average for the remainder of the heating season, the EIA sees working gas stocks ending the traditional withdrawal season March 31 at 1,269 Bcf, or 25% lower than the five-year average and the second-lowest end-of-season level reported since 2010.
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