Capacity outlook
ISO New England could see 2,072 MW of additions added to the grid this year, with no retirements scheduled, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.
The 805-MW Towantic Energy Center in New Haven County, Conn., whose largest owner is private equity-owned independent power producer Competitive Power Ventures Holdings LLC, and the 674-MW Salem Harbor Station NGCC in Essex County, Mass., also owned by private equity investors, make up 71% of the region's capacity additions. Both gas-fired, combined-cycle plants are under construction and are scheduled to come online in May and April, respectively. S&P Global Market Intelligence estimates that construction of each plant costs about $1 billion.
Of the 123 MW of wind capacity scheduled to come online, only the 10-MW Shamrock Wind Project (Limestone Wind Project) in Aroostook County, Maine, could potentially run into an unforeseen challenge, with Maine Gov. Paul LePage instituting a wind moratorium Jan. 24.
The 160 MW of solar scheduled to come online in 2018 is made up of 26 projects, with three of those projects already in operation, two in the advanced development stage, and 11 currently under construction. The largest solar project under construction is the 22-MW SSRE RI Gold Meadow Farms project owned by Southern Sky Renewable Energy LLC, and located in Providence, R.I. The output is to be sold to the city of Providence.
Grid officials in New England have worried about some generating resources, particularly gas-fired plants, from being able to access fuel supplies, particularly during high-demand periods such as cold-weather winter days. During a cold snap in late December 2017 and early January, New England saw wholesale gas prices spike and had to turn to oil-fired generators to meet demand for electricity. Longer term, states such as Massachusetts are looking for resources including hydro and offshore wind to meet future demand.

Supply/demand analysis
Between 2012 and the end of 2017, ISO-NE saw net decrease in capacity from 37,326 MW in 2012 to 37,103 MW in 2017. This small decline came as the peak load in the region hit its lowest point in the last six years in 2017, at 23,717 MW. The combination of a largely flat amount of capacity with a decreasing load created a large supply-to-demand ratio in 2017 at 56.44%. The ratio was determined by calculating the difference in unadjusted total operating capacity per year and peak load reported by the ISO, and dividing that difference by the same peak load. The calculation is not meant to reflect discounted reserve margins.
With this increasing ratio of capacity to demand, ISO-NE saw its latest forward capacity auction clear at just $4.63/kW-month —

Commodities outlook
Around-the-clock monthly power forwards as of Feb. 9 at ISO-NE's Internal and Mass hubs followed similar U-shaped curves, with prices at the beginning and end of the year being significantly higher. A frigid winter is likely contributing to February forwards hitting $61.69/MWh at the Internal Hub and $62.03/MWh at Mass Hub. Both prices represent February-December highs, with the Internal Hub's average price over the period at $35.41/MWh, and Mass Hub's average price at $36.07/MWh.
Monthly full value gas forwards at Algon Gates as of Feb. 9 for the year ahead show March and December having the highest prices, at $5.19/MMBtu and $6.46/MMBtu. Prices throughout the rest of the year fluctuate between $2.38/MMBtu in September and $3.56/MMBtu in November.

About the data
S&P Global Market Intelligence guarantees comprehensiveness and accuracy on power projects on units over 1 MW and supplying more than 50% of power generated to the grid. Projects included in this article are those that will be dispatching power to the ISO once online.
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