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February price trends favor burning natural gas over coal in US power markets

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February price trends favor burning natural gas over coal in US power markets

After a frigid January, mild weather returned in February and with it, natural gas' economic advantage over coal as a generation fuel.

Despite the thaw, electricity demand was up year over year in most power markets, with Texas' wholesale power market seeing the biggest increase.

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Average on-peak wholesale power prices were mostly higher year over year, rising by an average of 7.8% across the U.S., but fell by nearly half versus the prior month.

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Natural gas prices serving generators were mixed year over year, averaging 1.1% lower across the U.S., and were down by more than half versus the levels seen in January.

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The relative shift in power prices had U.S. gas-fired implied heat rates, or the efficiency rate at which the market cost of power equals the cost of burning natural gas to generate power, rising by an average of 20.3% versus the prior month and 9% year over year.

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At the same time, average coal-fired implied heat rates declined by more than half versus the prior month, and were flat to 8.6% higher year over year, implying a relative cost advantage to burning natural gas over coal both versus the prior month and year over year.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power, natural gas and coal index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.