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Retail port imports rise slightly in October

Imports at U.S. retail container ports rose slightly in October as the industry prepared for the latter half of the holiday shopping period, the National Retail Federation said in its monthly "Global Port Tracker" report.

In its Dec. 8 report, the federation, or NRF, and maritime consulting firm Hackett Associates said 1.77 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEU — a 20-foot-long container or equivalent — were handled at the 13 major U.S. ports they cover in October, a 0.3% rise from the 1.76 million TEU handled in September and a 6.4% year-over-year increase. The October imports figure beat the groups' previous estimate of 1.75 million TEU made in their November report.

The NRF and Hackett said preliminary estimates for November are 1.64 million TEU of imports, which would mark a 0.3% year-over-year dip from 2016, while December is forecast at 1.6 million TEU, a 1.5% yearly rise. Those figures are close to their previous forecasts for November at 1.63 million TEU and December at 1.60 million TEU.

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said the figures show that retailers are doing last-minute restocking for the holiday season, but he anticipates that port imports will slow down.

The groups forecast a total of 1.67 million TEU imports for January 2018, a 0.5% fall from January 2017, and 1.60 million TEU for February, which would mark an 11.6% increase from the prior February.

Gold cautioned that threats by the Trump administration to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement could impact the price of certain goods and, in turn, imports of retail items.

"Despite constant threats from the administration regarding trade, especially free trade agreements, imports have been riding high," he said. "Concerns continue about what will happen in 2018 and beyond."

2017 has been a record-setting year for retail imports; the NRF and Hackett said the monthly record of 1.80 million TEU was set in August.

The groups predicted in the Dec. 8 report that 2017 retail port imports will be 6.4% higher than in 2016. The projected 20 million TEU for 2017, also forecast by the NRF in previous reports, would top the previous import record of 18.8 million set in 2016.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said he anticipates that cargo volume will slow in 2018.

"We expect the coming six months to continue to grow, although at a reduced rate on a year-on-year basis," Hackett said. "The second half of 2018 will be weaker than the first half, but recession is not on the horizon."

"Global Port Tracker" covers 13 U.S. ports, including the ports of Seattle; Tacoma, Wash.; Charleston, S.C.; Savannah, Ga.; and New York/New Jersey.