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'Joker' could get last laugh at box office despite controversy

All publicity is good publicity, and no one embodies that more than DC Comics' Clown Prince of Crime, The Joker.

Batman's arch-nemesis, portrayed by Hollywood A-lister Joaquin Phoenix, will open his own origin-story film Oct. 4, and social media and presale sites indicate many moviegoers are cackling with anticipation. Some forecasters believe the title could crest $100 million in sales over its domestic debut weekend. BoxOffice.com projects "Joker" will capture $90 million, a downgrade from its earlier $103 million estimate, with the difference explained by some divisive press in the run-up to the R-rated film's release. Variety predicts an opening range that tops out at $95 million. Deadline is more restrained, saying the film should scare up an $80 million-plus result.

An opening over $80 million would pick off 2018's "Venom" as the top October opening.

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"Joker"
Source: Warner Bros.

Looking at comparisons, "Joker" tracks in a run of successful R-rated comic book titles that bucked the conventional wisdom that the genre should cast as wide a net as possible. Foul-mouthed comedic action hero "Deadpool" helped turn the tide on R-rated genre films in 2016 when it opened to $132.4 million against a $58.7 million budget, shooting its way to $993.9 million in total revenue and $640.8 million in net profit, according to Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

However, opening estimates for "Joker" are tracking closer to 2017's "Logan," a moody take on X-Men character Wolverine. "Logan" opened $88.4 million against a production budget of $128.4 million, and it slashed its way to total revenue of $734.9 million and net profits of $295.5 million, according to Kagan. "Joker" stands to benefit from a lower budget than "Logan," with its production costs estimated to be about $55 million.

Moviegoers will be weighing an array of buzz for "Joker," both good and bad. Some have criticized the film for glorifying public violence in an age of mass shootings. Theater owners in some locations are banning masks and costumes and law enforcement is taking the potential for threats seriously, going undercover for the debut in New York, according to Deadline. Nerves are raw after the 2012 Aurora, Colo., theater shooting, which took place during a screening of Batman film "The Dark Knight Rises."

Despite the fears about public safety threats, there is plenty of support for the new psychological take on the iconic Batman villain, and audiences will be interested in what Phoenix can do with the role. The actor joins the ranks of Hollywood elites such as Jack Nicholson and Heath Ledger in portraying Gotham's most infamous terrorist.

The Warner Bros. film was running a 69% "Certified Fresh" rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes as of 10:30 a.m. ET, Oct. 4.

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