Power dailies could open the new workweek on a mixed tenor Monday, March 27, as mostly weaker demand expectations for Tuesday collide with ongoing gains at the natural gas futures complex.
Rising 2.5 cents in the March 24 session, front-month NYMEX April natural gas futures continued higher early Monday ahead of the opening bell. At last look, the contract was up another 4.5 cents to $3.121/MMBtu at 6:30 a.m. ET amid ongoing short covering and fresh buying.
On the demand side, outlooks suggest varied but predominantly declining load as the fresh workweek unfolds.
In the Northeast, demand in New England could see highs at 15,580 MW on Monday and 15,070 MW on Tuesday, while New York load will likely hit highs at 18,156 MW on Monday and 17,900 MW on Tuesday. In the Mid-Atlantic, load in the PJM Western region is seen touching a high near 47,000 MW on Monday and 46,940 MW on Tuesday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic demand is called to reach 31,698 MW at the start of the new business week and 30,754 MW Tuesday.
In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is projected to crest at 14,635 MW on Monday and 14,552 MW on Tuesday, while PJM ComEd load is poised to defy the wider decline as it is expected to peak at 11,116 MW at the return of the workweek and 11,160 MW on Tuesday.
In the South, load in ERCOT should near 45,206 MW on Monday and 46,577 MW on Tuesday, also running against the dominant downtrend. In the West, CAISO demand could top out at 27,500 MW on Monday and 27,840 MW on Tuesday.
In forward trade, power prices for April were jumbled ahead of the weekend, as gains at the natural gas futures arena that implied an uptick in fueling costs ran against lackluster weather-related demand expectations.
In the East, deals for prompt-month power delivery shed more than $1 to average near $35 at NEPOOL-Mass and deflated by 20 cents to an index at roughly $34 at PJM West. Farther along the forward curve, power transactions for May were assessed in the low $30s in New England and in the mid- to high $30s at PJM West.
In the Midwest, price activity for April power at the PJM markets added about 20 cents to average above $33 at the AD hub and atop $31 at the Northern Illinois hub, but fell by around 40 cents to an index close to $34 at MISO Indiana. Power values for May across the three hubs were spread in the low $30s.
In the South, the power offering for April delivery at the ERCOT markets tacked on about 30 cents to as much as 70 cents in trades ranging from near $26 to atop $36. Power parcels for May across the region were quoted in the mid-$20s to the low $30s.
In the West, California saw pricing for month-ahead power recoil by about 40 cents to an index around $23 at North Path-15 and give back roughly 80 cents to average close to $22 at South Path-15, while Mid-Columbia April similarly notched a near 80-cent decline in deals carried out at almost $10, and Palo Verde April logged a better-than-60-cent slump in trades done atop $21. Power prices for May were pegged in the low $10s at Mid-C and in the low to high $20s elsewhere in the region.
Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.