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More than 8,000 MW of aging gas capacity expected to retire through 2027

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More than 8,000 MW of aging gas capacity expected to retire through 2027

Not counting coal or nuclear capacity, approximately 9,628 MW of U.S. power generation capacity is expected to be retired by 2027, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. Of that total, 8,217 MW, or 85%, is gas-fired capacity, primarily made up of steam turbines.

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The average age of retiring gas-fired units through 2027 is 52 years, while the average age for retirement of steam turbines is 57 years and for gas turbines is 15 years.

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Despite some efforts to replace the now-stalled Clean Power Plan and supportive comments from some government officials about fossil-fueled resources, the retirement trend for generating resources other than coal and nuclear has not changed much from the prior year, as older, less-efficient units are planned for shutdown.

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At 7,373 MW, steam turbines have the biggest chunk of the total non-coal, non-nuclear retirements by capacity through 2027. Hydraulic turbines have the second-largest amount of retiring capacity by technology type at 964 MW, ahead of retiring gas turbines at 837 MW.

Capacity retirements by region

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The California ISO region has the majority of slated retirements through 2027, with 5,765 MW, or 60%, of the total non-coal, non-nuclear retiring units located there. Almost all of this retiring capacity can be attributed to gas-fired capacity, with just 24 MW coming from hydro and wind capacity. All of this capacity is expected to be shut down by the end of 2020.

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About 16% of other non-coal, non-nuclear retirements are scheduled in the PJM Interconnection market, with most unit retirements expected to occur this year.

Largest units to be retired

NRG Energy Inc. and AES Corp. own the 10 largest non-coal, non-nuclear units by capacity slated for retirement.

The two largest are part of NRG's 1,516-MW Ormond Beach Generating Station in California, and are slated for retirement under the state's once-through cooling water regulations. They should be closed by December 2020. A potential replacement gas-fired plant has been put on hold. The cooling water regulations are also behind the AES unit retirements though California regulators have approved two replacement projects.

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