More than $23 billion of American consumer product and agriculture exports could be targeted by Canada, Mexico and the European Union as the three U.S. allies weigh retaliatory measures against Washington for its steel and aluminum tariffs, according to data from Panjiva Research, a division of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The June 1 report, which analyzed U.S. exports to the three trading partners, outlined products ranging from roasted coffee to herbicides to yachts that could be targeted for retaliation.
Threats of retaliation on U.S. exports came after the Trump administration said May 31 it would not renew exemptions on its 25% and 10% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, respectively, that it had previously provided for Canada, Mexico and the EU. The announcement sparked an immediate backlash, strong posturing and, in the case of Canada, a thorough list of U.S. exports to target in the next month.
Canada
Canada, which released two separate lists of U.S. exports to target, has gone after about C$16.6 billion worth of products and agriculture.
The first list would slap a 25% tariff on U.S. steel, while the second list would impose a 10% tariffs on an array of American consumer goods exports, including yogurt, pizza, whiskeys, dishwasher detergents, orange juice and coffee as well as aluminum, mattresses and plywood.
According to Panjiva, the largest targeted export is electrical distribution boards, worth $1.27 billion over the 12 months ended March 31, followed by herbicides at $949 million and thermostat parts at $694 million.

Chris Rogers, research director for Panjiva, said this product list —Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs called it "very carefully" selected —does not further harm supply chains created under the North American Free Trade Agreement. The tariffs are slated to go into effect July 1 following a 15-day public comment period.
The U.S., Canada and Mexico have been unable to reach a revised deal on NAFTA, due in part to American demands regarding auto content, as well as a five-year sunset clause proposal that Canada rejected, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said May 31.
"By targeting consumer products the Canadian government has avoided the risk of disrupting NAFTA-wide supply chains that would come from applying duties to industrial products, components and materials," Rogers said.
Mexico
Mexico, though it has not yet specified product and tariff lines for the U.S. goods it plans to target in retaliation, was the first trading ally to announce retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, most notably pork meat. A total of $1.26 billion in pork meat was shipped to the southern neighbor in the year ended April 30, according to Panjiva, while cheese and apples, valued at $390 million and $379 million, respectively, over that period, also were included on the tariff list.

Other products targeted by Mexico include flat steel, lamps and blueberries. Depending on how Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross' discussions with China on trade go this weekend, Beijing may benefit most from Mexico's measures, Rogers said.
"Ironically, China may be the target market for American produce that may no longer go to Mexico," Rogers said. "Though that is a function of how good a salesperson Secretary Ross proves to be this weekend."
European Union
The European Union, meanwhile, has previously floated a number of American products to target, including Harley-Davidson Inc. motorcycles, Levi Strauss & Co. jeans, Kentucky bourbon and types of cosmetics and footwear.
Those products were mentioned in a list released in March. The European Commission has not yet released a list of U.S. products to target following the U.S. decision on May 31 to lift the steel and aluminum tariff exemptions. The body, however, did note in a statement that it was left with no choice but to impose "additional duties on a number of imports from the U.S." The European Commission also said June 1 that it would launch a dispute settlement case at the World Trade Organization.
Whiskey tops the list of products reportedly thought to be targeted by the EU, with $737 million exported to the trade bloc in the year ended March 31. American-made makeup, $670 million of which was exported over the same period, according to Panjiva, was not far behind, as were motorcycles, at $546 million.

The European demand for U.S. makeup could be replaced by significant domestic production alternatives, Rogers said, though he noted that Harley-Davidson brand motorcycles would have a tougher time being replaced.
"You could argue that Honda Motor Co. Ltd.'s larger motorcyle models may benefit," he said.
