Day-ahead power values could start the fresh workweek elevated Monday, March 12, as mostly supportive demand outlooks for Tuesday combine with mixed moves for natural gas.
Losing 2.4 cents in the March 9 trading day, NYMEX April natural gas futures were up 1.1 cents at $2.743/MMBtu at last look at 6:50 a.m. ET on light short covering.
Tracking the recent sideways activity in futures, next-day natural gas markets at many U.S. consuming hubs could run mixed with late winter weather support in some areas also seen supporting price gains Monday.
On the demand side, most grid operators see rising load as the fresh workweek unfolds.
In the Northeast, demand in New England is poised to peak at 16,160 MW on Monday and 16,700 MW on Tuesday while load in New York is called to reach 19,023 MW at the start of the new business week and 19,183 MW on Tuesday. In the mid-Atlantic, demand in the PJM Western region is projected to crest at 54,845 MW on Monday and 55,125 MW on Tuesday while load in PJM Mid-Atlantic is forecast to hit highs at 35,718 MW on Monday and 36,071 MW on Tuesday.
In the Midwest, PJM AEP region load will likely reach highs at 17,450 MW on Monday and 17,603 MW on Tuesday while PJM ComEd demand could top out at 12,357 MW at the return of the workweek and 12,414 MW on Tuesday.
In the South, load in Texas should near 38,642 MW on Monday and 40,278 MW on Tuesday. In the West, California demand is forecast to see highs at 27,965 MW at the start of the new workweek and 27,200 MW on Tuesday.
At the term markets, power prices for April varied ahead of the weekend, as lingering cold in forecasts and moderating weather implied by the calendar suggested diverging demand patterns going forward.
In the East, April power deals were discussed in the low to mid-$30s in transactions 10 cents higher on the day in New England and almost 40 cents stronger at PJM West. Power value for May delivery were assessed in the high $20s in New England and the low $30s at PJM West.
In the Midwest, front-month power climbed by roughly 30 cents to the low $30s at PJM AD but faltered by around 10 cents to the high $20s at PJM Northern Illinois, while a similar offering slumped by about 20 cents to the low $30s at MISO Indiana. Farther along the forward curve, May power was valued in the low to mid-$30s overall.
In the South, near 50-cent losses at the ERCOT hubs took pricing for April power delivery to the high $20s into the low $30s, a range shared with regional price activity for May power.
In the West, North Path-15 April was off 25 cents on the day in the low $30s but South Path-15 April was up 10 cents in the high $20s. Month-ahead power notched a roughly 30-cent increase in deals carried out in the low to mid-teens at Mid-Columbia and logged a 10-cent gain in transactions done in the high $20s at Palo Verde. Power parcels for May were marked in the low teens at Mid-Columbia and the high $20s to the low $30s elsewhere in the region.


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