The price of day-ahead power could be split Thursday, Feb. 1, as generally stronger demand outlooks for the close of the workweek collide with ongoing weakness in natural gas futures.
Sinking 20.0 cents in the Jan. 31 session amid ongoing overbought conditions, NYMEX March natural gas futures were extending lower early Thursday ahead of the midmorning release of the latest weekly storage report from the government. At 7:25 a.m. ET, the front-month futures contract was down another 5.3 cents to trade near $2.942/MMBtu.
The market is expecting the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will detail an average pull of 102 Bcf from storage for the week ended Jan. 26. The figure will compare to the 92-Bcf year-ago withdrawal and the 160-Bcf five-year average pull.
On the demand side, most grid operators across the country anticipate elevated load at the close of the workweek.
In the Northeast, load in New England is expected to peak at 17,200 MW on Thursday and 17,860 MW on Friday, while New York demand is seen cresting at 20,469 MW on Thursday and 21,386 MW on Friday. In the mid-Atlantic, load in the PJM Western region is called to reach 56,626 MW on Thursday and 60,986 MW on Friday, while demand in PJM Mid-Atlantic is projected to hit highs at 37,478 MW on Thursday and 39,178 MW at the end of the business week.
In the Midwest, PJM AEP region load is expected to top out at 17,388 MW on Thursday and 19,562 MW on Friday, while PJM ComEd demand is forecast to touch a high near 13,639 MW on Thursday and 13,782 MW on Friday.
In the South, Texas load could see highs at 39,542 MW on Thursday and 42,255 MW at the close of the workweek.
In the West, demand in California should reach highs at 29,130 MW on Thursday and 27,970 MW on Friday, which should exert downside pressure on power prices in the region Thursday, as market participants move revised partly weekend parcels for Friday-Saturday delivery.
In forward trade, March power notched losses overall Jan. 31 and ahead of its debut as the front-month offering, in tandem with March natural gas futures that tumbled on the session to drive fueling costs lower. Soon-to-be balance-of-month February power had a mixed but predominantly weak showing.
In the East, March power prices deflated by roughly $3 to the low $60s in New England and fell by about $4 to the low $40s at PJM West. February power values slumped by around $2 to around $105 in New England and to the low into mid-$60s at PJM West.
In the Midwest, the power offering for March was quoted in the low to high $30s in transactions down $2 day on day at MISO Indiana and off around $4 at both PJM AD and PJM Northern Illinois. Power for February delivery was marked in the low to high $40s in deals 65 cents softer on the day at PJM Northern Illinois and about $2 weaker at both PJM AD and MISO Indiana.
In the South, losses of $1 or more at the ERCOT markets took pricing for March power to the high $20s into the high $30s. A reduction of 30 cents to as much as $4 steered regional price activity for February power to the high $30s into the low $40s.
In the West, both North Path-15 and South Path-15 in California saw March power falter by $1 to the high $20s, as Mid-Columbia March slid by roughly $1 to the high $10s, and Palo Verde March fell by almost $2 to the low $20s. February power was up about 90 cents in the low to mid-$30s at both North Path-15 and South Path-15 in California, but around 70 cents weaker in the high $10s at Mid-Columbia and 70 cents higher in the high $20s at Palo Verde.

Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.
