Driven by the last moves of the old regime at EQT Corp., the nation's largest natural gas producer, Pennsylvania's shale production inched up 0.5% in June compared to May and 13% compared to June 2018.
Pennsylvania's shale gas wells produced 18.32 Bcf/d in June, according to the latest data from the state Department of Environmental Protection, with no changes in where that gas is coming from and which companies are producing it.
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The five most productive drillers, all public companies, accounted for nearly two-thirds of June gas production, 75% of which comes from five counties in the northeastern and southwestern corners of the state, according to the Department of Environmental Protection database Aug. 19.
Susquehanna County, dominated by Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. and with more pipeline takeaway capacity this year than in 2018 due to the opening of Williams Cos. Inc.'s Atlantic Sunrise pipeline in October 2018, continued to be the top producing county in the state, with 16% year-over-year growth in June.
In the far southwestern corner of the state, Greene County saw 41% year-over-year growth in shale gas volumes as EQT expanded production into thousands of new acres acquired in its 2017 purchase of Rice Energy. That growth spurt may be the last for a while after disgruntled shareholders elected Rice Energy's former COO, Toby Rice, as EQT's new CEO in July. Rice has promised a sweeping overhaul of EQT's drilling plans for 2019 and 2020.

Any uptick in Pennsylvania production is likely short-lived, according to shale gas analysts. With drillers under increasing pressure to control their spending and generate free cash flow, the second half of 2019 is likely to be marked by flat production growth or declines, analysts said.
"With less capital to put into the ground and the Henry Hub strip averaging less than $2.50/MMBtu through 2022, Appalachian operators are slowing down," BTU Analytics LLC energy analyst Matt Hagerty said in an August note. "A slowdown in 2019 drilling could be felt more acutely in 2020 production. BTU Analytics currently forecasts completion activity to decrease in 2H'19 from 1H'19 levels and fall even further in 2020."
Other analysts saw the same thing. "Producers have signaled dropping rigs in 2H ([Antero Resources Corp.], EQT, [Gulfport Energy Corp.], [Southwestern Energy Co.], [Range Resources Corp.])," Jefferies LLC oil and gas analyst Zach Parham told clients Aug. 8. "We continue to see Appalachia gas growth slowing substantially in 2019, as we estimate our coverage group (roughly half of Appalachia gas production) will add just 0.5 Bcf/d of exit to exit production in 2019 (vs 2.3 Bcf/d in 2018)."
Pennsylvania is the largest gas-producing state in the Appalachian region, followed by West Virginia and Ohio.

