The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural gas to provide the lion's share of the country's power through 2019.
In its latest "Short-Term Energy Outlook" released June 12, the agency projects the country's power production will average roughly 11.2 million MWh/d through 2019.
According to the outlook, coal will supply 28.1% of the country's electricity in 2018, down from the prior forecast of 28.7%, to natural gas' share of 34.0%, up from the prior projection of 33.6%. In 2019, the EIA forecasts coal will provide 27.9% of the country's power to natural gas' share of 34.1%. The prior outlook had coal's 28.5% share behind natural gas' 34.2% share.
The agency expects delivered coal prices will average $2.19/MMBtu and $2.22/MMBtu in 2018 and 2019, respectively, against delivered natural gas prices of $3.46/MMBtu and $3.45/MMBtu.
The federal agency trimmed its 2018 power-sector coal demand outlook by 1.7% versus the prior forecast to 629 million tons, while it cut its 2019 projection by 2.4% to 618 million tons.
Meanwhile, the agency raised its 2018 domestic coal production forecast by 0.7% versus the prior projection to 756 million tons and lowered its 2019 outlook 1.9% to 738 million tons.
The federal agency lowered its 2018 year-end power-sector stockpile forecast by 0.6% versus the prior outlook to 124.3 million tons, while it lowered its 2019 year-end stockpile outlook 0.4% to 124.5 million tons.
The agency expects 2018 U.S. coal exports to reach 92.8 million tons, up 5.3% versus the prior projection, while it increased its 2019 export forecast 1.7% to 86.0 million tons.
