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Retail port imports still expected to set record this summer

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Retail port imports still expected to set record this summer

The threat of tariffs from trading partners across the Atlantic and Pacific may not be enough to slow down what is expected to be a record-setting summer for retail ports imports, the National Retail Federation said in a monthly report.

In its June 7 "Global Port Tracker" report, the industry group and maritime consulting firm Hackett Associates forecast 1.78 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEU, of retail goods imports in June, a 3.7% year-over-year rise, as well as 1.88 million TEU in July, a 4.1% yearly increase, and 1.91 million TEU for August, a 4% rise.

The groups also forecast September at 1.83 million TEU, which would mark a 2.3% year-over-year increase, and 1.9 million TEU for October, a 5.7% increase. The monthly forecasts for July, August and October would all top the previous 1.83 million TEU record set in August 2017.

"Despite an environment where the U.S. administration is enacting measures that could lead to a trade war with most of its Asian and European trading partners, we see imports continuing to grow," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a news release. "This suggests that neither industry nor consumers really believe that President Trump will push through with his proposed tariffs. Let's hope that they are right."

The U.S. is involved in trade spats with China as well as the European Union, regions that both export heavily to the East Coast and West Coast ports covered in the monthly report.

The threat of tariffs on imports by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs aimed at the U.S. by trading partners still threaten consumer prices, but that should not slow the pace of imports, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement.

"Consumers are buying more and that means retailers are importing more," Gold said. "Imports continue to be the primary source of high-quality, mass-produced necessities at affordable prices and will be for the foreseeable future."

The groups also projected monthly records of U.S. imports of retail goods this summer in its May 9 report, though the figures were adjusted slightly for the latest monthly projections.

A total of 1.63 million TEU of retail goods were imported in April, a 0.3% yearly increase, while May was estimated a 1.77 million TEU, a 1.3 year-over-year rise.

"Global Port Tracker" covers 14 U.S. ports, including Miami, Houston, Los Angeles/Long Beach and Oakland.