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AM Power Report: Dailies could be weighed down by lackluster demand outlooks

Editor's note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Next-day power markets could have a weak showing Tuesday, May 15, as traders consider predominantly softer midweek demand prospects.

Participants will also keep watch of natural gas market activity. Gaining 3.6 cents in the prior session, at 6:50 a.m. ET, June natural gas futures were down 0.9 cent to trade near $2.833/MMBtu on light profit-taking.

In terms of demand, outlooks for midweek are varied but mostly lower.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to crest at 15,150 MW on Tuesday and 13,960 MW on Wednesday while load in New York is forecast to hit highs at 19,800 MW on Tuesday and 19,050 MW at midweek. To the south, PJM Western region load should near 56,616 MW on Tuesday and 53,607 MW on Wednesday while PJM Mid-Atlantic demand is called to reach 39,517 MW on Tuesday and 32,538 MW on Wednesday.

In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is seen peaking at 18,333 MW on Tuesday and 17,173 MW on Wednesday, while load in PJM ComEd is poised to buck the wider decline to see highs at 11,993 MW on Tuesday and 12,123 MW at midweek.

In the South, Texas demand is seen touching a high near 59,942 MW on Tuesday and 61,843 MW in the middle of the workweek. In the West, load in California could top out at 28,151 MW on Tuesday and 27,513 MW on Wednesday.

Along the forward curve, price action for June power was choppy in the week's opening session. In the East, the power offering for month-ahead delivery was near unchanged in the high $20s in New England but off 40 cents day on day in the low to mid-$30s at PJM West. July power was quoted in the high $30s at both hubs.

In the Midwest, June power deals were bolstered by roughly 20 cents to the low $30s at PJM Northern Illinois. Similar trades were valued in the mid- to upper $30s were 5 cents higher on the day at PJM AD and 55 cents stronger at MISO Indiana. Along the forward curve, July power transactions were assessed in the high $30s to the low $40s overall.

In the South, ERCOT North saw prompt-month power value retreat by 50 cents to the low $50s, as hub activity for July power spanned the low $120s.

In the West, a 25-cent increase drove Mid-Columbia June power to the mid- to upper $10s, as roughly 50-cent losses took June power to the mid- to high $30s at Palo Verde and the low $30s at South Path-15. Power prices for July delivery was marked in the high $20s at Mid-Columbia and in the high $40s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.