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AM Power Report: Dailies could be bolstered by load projections

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AM Power Report: Dailies could be bolstered by load projections

Pricing for next-day power could be biased higher Thursday, March 1, on the back of mostly stronger demand forecasts for the close of the workweek.

Traders will also focus on natural gas markets for power price direction. Losing 1.6 cents in the Feb. 28 trading day, NYMEX April natural gas futures remained on a downward trajectory early Thursday ahead of the opening bell. At 7:15 a.m. ET, the contract was down another 1.9 cents to $2.648/MMBtu on profit-taking ahead of the midmorning release of the latest round of weekly storage data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Market analysts and experts surveyed are calling for a storage withdrawal from 60 Bcf to 82 Bcf, with a consensus pegged at a 75-Bcf pull. The figure will compare to the 124-Bcf withdrawal reported the previous week as well as the 7-Bcf year-ago withdrawal and the 118-Bcf five-year average pull.

In terms of demand, load outlooks for the close of the workweek are mostly pointed higher.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to top out at 15,190 MW on Thursday and 15,770 MW on Friday, while load in New York is projected to crest at 18,773 MW on Thursday and 19,033 MW at the end of the business week. Farther south, PJM Western region load is forecast to see highs at 50,132 MW on Thursday and 51,017 MW on Friday, while PJM Mid-Atlantic load is seen touching a high near 33,536 MW on Thursday and 34,791 MW on Friday.

In the Midwest, PJM AEP region demand is called to reach 15,255 MW on Thursday and 16,012 MW on Friday, while PJM ComEd load is poised to buck the dominant uptrend and is projected to hit highs at 12,254 MW on Thursday and 11,746 MW on Friday.

In the South, Texas demand should near 39,577 MW on Thursday and 40,684 MW at the close of the workweek.

In the West, California load looks to peak at 29,270 MW on Thursday and 27,840 MW on Friday, which should exert pressure on power dailies in the region Thursday, with the day's trading schedule altered to feature products for Friday-Saturday delivery.

In forward activity, April power predominantly favored the upside on the back of lingering weather support Wednesday and just ahead of its debut as the front-month offering, while soon-to-be balance-of-month March power had a mixed showing.

In the East, the New England hub and PJM West saw April power buck the wider advance with a 20-cent slump and an almost $2 decline to the low $30s at both hubs. March power was also valued in the low $30s in deals off roughly 30 cents on the day in New England and down 90 cents at PJM West.

In the Midwest, 10-cent gains took April power to the low $30s at PJM AD and the high $20s at PJM Northern Illinois as an approximately 80-cent increase steered MISO Indiana April to the mid-$30s. March power was about 20 cents softer on the day in the high $20s at PJM Northern Illinois, while a similar offering quoted in the low $30s was roughly 10 cents weaker at PJM AD but $1 stronger at MISO Indiana.

In the South, April power prices fell by almost 30 cents to the low $30s at ERCOT Houston but climbed by 10 cents to 50 cents to the mid-$20s into the low $30s at the rest of the ERCOT hubs. March power was similarly assessed in the mid-$20s to the low $30s in trades down about 20 cents on the day at ERCOT Houston but up about 40 cents to 50 cents elsewhere in the region.

In the West, California saw April power hold near unchanged in the high $20s at North Path-15 and climb by about 20 cents to the low $20s at South Path-15, while a similar parcel was lifted roughly $1 to the low into mid-$10s at Mid-Columbia and bolstered by almost 20 cents to the low $20s at Palo Verde. March power was off about 10 cents in the high $20s at North Path-15 but up 20 cents in the low $30s at South Path-15. Mid-Columbia March power was 70 cents stronger in the upper teens, while Palo Verde March power was roughly 10 cents higher in the low $20s.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.