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Ontario power grid operator expects flat demand through winter months

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Ontario power grid operator expects flat demand through winter months

Ontario's electricity consumption is forecast to be flat through the winter of 2018 and edge downward in 2019 as conservation programs and embedded generation pare growth.

Electricity demand during normal winter weather in 2017 is expected to peak at 21,619 MW and could rise to 22,785 MW in extreme situations, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator, or IESO, which runs the power grid in Canada's most-populous province. Extreme heat in the summer of 2018 could drive demand to 24,500 MW, the IESO said, while the normal-weather peak would be 22,176 MW, according to the grid operator's latest 18-month forecast.

Ontario's climate change-mitigation policy has focused on decreasing power consumption while boosting the use of renewables. The supply and demand forecast, which is updated every six months, was released Dec. 12 and anticipates the province's power grid will have adequate resources to meet consumer needs. Energy demand showed a significant decline in 2017, the report said, attributing much of the drop to consumer and industrial conservation programs, and a jump in embedded generation on its grid.

"Continuing the trend of the last few years, we're forecasting that Ontario will continue to experience flat growth in electricity demand," IESO COO Leonard Kula said in a statement that accompanied the forecast. "We attribute this mainly to Ontarians' conservation efforts, generation on local distribution networks and the Industrial Conservation Initiative, which all work to reduce demand on the provincial power system and offset any expected growth we might see from increased population and economic expansion."

The IESO expects embedded generation within its grid to increase by more than 200 MW through the addition of solar power projects, bringing total generation on local networks to 3,300 MW. The IESO ended feed-in tariff programs as "a result of the province's robust supply situation and flat yearly demand for electricity," the statement said.

About 1,335 MW of new supply is expected to be added to the grid in the forecast period. About 1,000 MW of the total will come from natural gas-fired plants, specifically TransCanada Corp.'s Napanee Generating Station (Oakville) expected in service in the second quarter of 2018, 275 MW will be wind power, 50 MW is to come from solar and 10 MW will be hydroelectric. By the end of the forecast period the IESO expects to have about 4,500 MW of grid-connected wind power and about 434 MW of solar.

The province's transmission network is forecast to be reliable under most circumstances, the report said. Analysis revealed one week in the normal-weather scenario where transmission outages could impact reliability. Transmission constraints could be a problem in northwestern Ontario, and the IESO has recommended expanding the East West Tie line system to boost reliability. That project would come into service in the fourth quarter of 2020. Distribution companies, including Hydro One Ltd., have a number of projects underway to reduce congestion on the grid, the IESO said.