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Disney battles Disney at the box office

Two Walt Disney Co. films will battle for the top spot during the March 9 weekend at the box office: debut book adaptation "A Wrinkle in Time" and holdover "Black Panther."

"A Wrinkle in Time" will meet the Marvel superhero title in the latter's fourth weekend, and the two are neck in neck, according to forecasters. BoxOffice.com puts the debut at a $33.5 million opening weekend and "Black Panther" at $39.3 million. Variety, meanwhile, is looking for a range of $30 million to $38 million for "A Wrinkle in Time," overlapping its $35 million to $40 million range for the holdover. The Hollywood Reporter expects "A Wrinkle in Time" to open between $35 million and $40 million, and it says "Black Panther" could exceed $40 million.

With a budget of reportedly just above the nine-figure mark, young-adult fantasy "A Wrinkle in Time" could have a muted debut. The Reporter noted that Disney likely did not expect the "Black Panther" phenomenon to be so strong in its fourth weekend, potentially breaking $550 million by March 12 and posing stiff competition for "A Wrinkle in Time."

"Black Panther's" pounce on the box office led to a domestic record February, cresting the $1 billion mark, according to Deadline Hollywood, with the superhero title accounting for 43% of ticket sales in that period.

Meanwhile, "A Wrinkle in Time" is struggling to gain momentum. Critics were not particularly impressed, with Rotten Tomatoes landing on a 43% "rotten" score, as of 8:40 a.m. ET, March 9.

SNL Image"A Wrinkle in Time"
Source: Disney

Young-skewing fantasy titles have been a mixed bag over the years. Films like "The BFG," "Hugo" and "The Golden Compass" floundered in theaters. Fellow Disney title "The BFG," for instance, launched to just $18.8 million against a $141.8 million budget and exited in the red by $69.0 million. Yet Disney does not make a habit of losing money. Even titles like "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian" opened to just $55.0 million against a whopping $229.3 million budget and exited with $124.2 million in profit.

During the weekend, three other films will open wide, but deep in the shadow of "Black Panther" and "A Wrinkle in Time."

Horror flick "The Strangers: Prey at Night" could benefit from a dearth of first-quarter scary titles and eek into the top 3 for the March 9 weekend, but likely well below the two leaders. BoxOffice.com forecasts an $8.0 million opening, putting it neck and neck with holdover Jennifer Lawrence film "Red Sparrow." Variety, meanwhile, gives it a range of $7 million to $8 million. The Reporter only acknowledges that the film will not likely hit $10 million.

The first in the franchise, "The Strangers," opened to a solid $21.0 million against a meager $9.2 million budget and exited with $24.9 million in profit. However, other modest horror efforts like "The Collector" and "The Collection," which each opened below $4 million, had a scarier fate, exiting with losses in excess of $30 million.

Rotten Tomatoes gave "Prey at Night" a "rotten" 35% rating.

Films "The Hurricane Heist" and "Gringo" are expected to each make below $10 million, according to forecasters. Variety forecasts openings of $7 million and $5 million, respectively, but BoxOffice.com puts them at or below $5 million.

Bank-robbery thriller "The Hurricane Heist" compares well with titles like "The Bank Job" and "Hard Rain." Those films opened to $5.9 million and $8.0 million, respectively, and left theaters with mixed results. A list of five comparisons compiled by Kagan, a research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence, saw an average opening of $16.9 million and an average theatrical profit margin of 18.1%.

"Gringo," an action comedy about a businessman kidnapped by a drug cartel, compares to titles like "The Tourist," "The Mexican" and "The Nice Guys," but it will struggle to meet those opening results. The average opening of a list of Kagan comparisons was $14.3 million with an average profit margin of 13.3% on very mixed results. The film was running at a 33% "rotten" rating on Rotten Tomatoes, as of 8:40 a.m. ET, March 9.

SNL Image