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'Coco' charms again as sleepy box office waits for Star Wars

The first two weekends in December are seeing the box office go into a winter hibernation before a rush of activity for the holiday season.

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"Just Getting Started"
Source: Broad Green Pictures

For the weekend of Dec. 8, only one new release will go wide in U.S. theaters: geriatric comedy "Just Getting Started." While the film will bring senior superstars Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones to the screen, it will not be enough to rouse the sleeping box office bear. BoxOffice.com forecasts the Broad Green Pictures debut to collect just $3.3 million over the weekend, while Movie Web expects an opening at $5.1 million.

A list of comparisons compiled by Kagan showed a very mixed outlook for "Just Getting Started." Films like "Analyze This," "Last Vegas" and "Grudge Match" enjoyed a positive average profit margin of 9.6%, but that was against an average opening gross of $15 million, much higher than what is predicted for "Just Getting Started." It could look more like "Grudge Match" alone, which opened to $7.0 million and exited deep in the red by 66.7%.

Rotten Tomatoes scores were not available for "Just Getting Started," as of 7:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 8.

Those expectations put the new release low on a theatrical totem pole led by Walt Disney Co.'s multicultural animation hit "Coco." That film danced past expectations for a long Thanksgiving weekend debut at $72.9 million when even bullish forecasts were only looking for a $60 million release. The movie collected $27.5 million in its second weekend, and forecasts put it at the top of box offices again during the Dec. 8 period, with BoxOffice.com forecasting an $18.8 million third weekend.

The success of "Coco" helped slumping tickets sales, putting theaters up 2.1% for the winter season so far compared to the prior-year period. Summer and fall 2017 were bleak, however. Even with the "Coco" boost, the box office was down by about 2.6% for the year through the end of November, compared to the same period in 2016, according to Kagan research.

Theaters are hoping the holiday season will make up for lost ground. Variety notes that the critical period has been accounting for about 15% of the year's total ticket sales in recent years, and it could continue that trend with the release of "Star Wars: The Last Jedi" on Dec. 15. While it may be "a foregone conclusion that we're not going to catch up to last year," as one film analyst told Variety, an opening for "The Last Jedi" in the $200 million range, as Variety predicts, would do a lot to bandage the wounds of a troubled year at the cinema.

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