After ending the prior session with a 13.9-cent decline to a finish at $2.856/MMBtu, NYMEX March natural gas futures ticked higher in buying at lows overnight ahead of the Friday, Feb. 2, open. At 7:10 a.m. ET (1210 GMT) the contract was 4.4 cents higher at $2.900/MMBtu.
March gas crumbled for the second consecutive session Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration outlined a net 99-Bcf withdrawal during the week ended Jan. 26 that was below both the average anticipated 102-Bcf draw and the 160-Bcf five-year average pull, even as it bested the 92-Bcf year-ago drawdown. That took total working gas stocks to 2,197 Bcf, or 526 Bcf below the year-ago level and 425 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,622 Bcf.
Lackluster demand in the subsequent days suggest another modest withdrawal from stocks when the next weekly storage data for the current week to Feb. 2 is released, as the EIA's latest "Natural Gas Weekly Update" for the week ended Jan. 31 shows a 2% week-on-week slump in total U.S. gas consumption.
Seasonable to colder-than-normal weather in midrange outlooks suggests elevated heating demand and a ramped up rate of weekly storage draws but only briefly, as moderating conditions in longer-range projections suggests renewed demand weakness and a reprise of a slower rate of inventory erosion as winter transitions to spring.
The National Weather Service sees average to below-average temperatures encompassing nearly the entire eastern two-thirds of the country and the fringes of the Rockies in the upcoming six- to 10-day period, but receding from the west-central U.S. to be contained to the eastern third and a few parts of the central U.S. in the eight- to 14-day period. Above-average temperatures hold over Florida and most of the West in the shorter-range view, then overtake nearly the entire western half of the U.S. in the extended period.
Further out, The Weather Company anticipates a warming trend over the southern U.S. and colder weather over the northern half of the country from February through April, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sees warmer conditions across much of the Northeast, Southeast, south-central U.S., Texas and parts of the West Coast over the same period and near- to colder-than-normal weather over the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, Northwest and the north-central U.S.
Pricing for next-day natural gas was aimed lower in much of the country Thursday, in line with futures.
Looking at the key delivery locations, an almost 29-cent decline steered benchmark Henry Hub spot gas price action to an index at $3.057/MMBtu, as a roughly 23-cent reduction took Chicago day-ahead gas pricing to an average at $2.876/MMBtu and an approximately 5-cent slump nudged PG&E Gate hub activity to an index at $2.688/MMBtu. Bucking the broad downtrend, a near $4.09 increase drove Transco Zone 6 NY cash gas pricing to an average at $8.573/MMBtu.

In regional terms, Gulf Coast next-day natural gas price activity logged a roughly 9-cent decrease in trades averaging at $3.089/MMBtu, as Midwest cash gas price action shed about 23 cents on the session to average at $2.688/MMBtu. West Coast spot gas prices faltered by around 13 cents on average to an index at $2.247/MMBtu, as Northeast day-ahead gas pricing climbed by almost $1.63 against the wider retreat to an index at $5.612/MMBtu.

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