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AM Power Report: Dailies could open week mixed amid diverging fundamentals

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AM Power Report: Dailies could open week mixed amid diverging fundamentals

Power dailies could be jumbled in the week's opening session Monday, June 5, as predominantly weaker demand forecasts for Tuesday run counter to a fresh uptick at the natural gas futures arena.

Ending the prior session just 0.9-cent lower, front-month July natural gas futures were ticking higher early Monday ahead of the opening bell. At about 6:30 a.m. ET, the NYMEX gas futures contract was up 3.6 cents to trade near $3.035/MMBtu on light short covering with increasingly bullish weather support.

Day-ahead natural gas prices at the major U.S. consuming hubs could be poised in varied directions Monday, in tandem with the recent volatility in the gas futures arena.

On the demand side, outlooks suggest declining load in much of the country as the fresh workweek unfolds.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is poised to peak at 14,540 MW on Monday and 14,140 MW on Tuesday, while load in New York is called to reach 19,142 MW at the start of the new business week and 18,104 MW on Tuesday. In the Mid-Atlantic, the PJM grid operator sees demand in PJM Western region cresting at 54,761 MW on Monday and 49,873 MW on Tuesday, while load in PJM Mid-Atlantic is projected to hit highs at 34,514 MW on Monday and 31,066 MW on Tuesday.

In the Midwest, PJM AEP region load will likely reach highs at 17,167 MW on Monday and 15,573 MW on Tuesday, while PJM ComEd demand could top out at 13,010 MW at the return of the workweek and 12,147 MW on Tuesday.

In the South, load in Texas should near 54,404 MW on Monday and 56,480 MW on Tuesday, running against the wider decline. In the West, California demand is forecast to see highs at 33,070 MW at the start of the new workweek and 33,500 MW on Tuesday.

In forward trade, price action for July power predominantly unraveled ahead of the weekend, as ongoing weakness at the natural gas futures complex kept fueling costs deflated.

In the East, front-month power transactions shed over $1 to average at roughly $40 in New England and slumped by about 10 cents to an index near $42 at PJM West. Power deals for August delivery were assessed in the high $30s to the low $40s at both hubs.

In the Midwest, pricing for July power was off 15 cents at an index close to $42 at PJM AD, but flat at an average at $40 at PJM Northern Illinois and up by roughly $1 against the broad decline to an index at $41 at MISO Indiana. Power values for August spanned the high $30s to the low $40s overall.

In the South, the power offering for July was quoted between $39 and $48 in deals up by almost 10 cents against the dominant downtrend at ERCOT North but off by about 80 cents to more than $1 at the rest of the ERCOT markets. Power parcels for August delivery across the region were marked in the low $60s.

In the West, price activity for month-ahead power gave back 15 cents in California to average above $33 at North Path-15 and at near $35 at South Path-15, as prompt-month pricing fell by 60 cents to an index atop $25 at Mid-Columbia but advanced by 10 cents to an index at roughly $38 at Palo Verde. Power prices for August were spread in the low to high $30s.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities Pages.