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AM Power Report: Dailies could end week higher with post-weekend load outlooks

Editor's Note: Please be advised that S&P Global Market Intelligence will no longer publish daily articles on price trends in the U.S. natural gas, electricity and emissions markets beginning June 1, 2018. Pricing data for these energy markets will continue to be available on the Market Intelligence platform.

Power dailies could advance in the week's closing session Friday, May 11, in line with mostly rising post-weekend demand expectations.

Natural gas markets will also be watched. Ending 7.7 cents higher in the prior session amid supportive weather outlooks, NYMEX June natural gas futures were slightly lower early Friday on light profit taking ahead of the weekend. Near 6:45 a.m. ET, the contract was down 0.7 cent to $2.807/MMBtu.

On the demand side, most grid operators anticipate stronger load at the start of the fresh workweek May 14 amid the typical post-weekend rebound in business-related demand.

In the Northeast, demand in New England is expected to reach highs at 13,150 MW on Friday and 14,050 MW on May 14 while load in New York is seen hitting highs at 16,671 MW on Friday and 17,105 MW on May 14. In the mid-Atlantic, the PJM grid operator sees PJM Western region demand cresting at 47,578 MW on Friday and 53,967 MW on May 14 while PJM Mid-Atlantic load is called to reach 31,532 MW on Friday and 32,000 MW at the return of the business week.

In the Midwest, demand in the PJM AEP region is poised to peak at 14,659 MW on Friday and 17,604 MW on May 14 while load in PJM ComEd could touch a high near 10,775 MW on Friday and 11,237 MW on May 14.

In the South, load in Texas could top out at 54,942 MW on Friday and 58,260 MW at the start of the next workweek.

In the West, demand in California could see highs at 27,577 MW on Friday and 25,557 MW on May 12 but should find some upside support May 14, as full industrial and commercial load recovers at the return of the workweek.

In term action, June power was mixed with a dominant upside bias May 10, as rising front-month natural gas futures spelled increased fueling costs.

In the East, pricing for month-ahead power was almost 10 cents higher in the upper $20s in New England and about 40 cents stronger in the mid-$30s at PJM West. Farther along the forward curve, power values for July were pegged in the mid-$30s in New England and the high $30s at PJM West.

In the Midwest, June power notched a 45-cent increase in deals assessed in the mid- to high $30s at PJM AD, while a similar offering logged a roughly 40-cent gain at PJM Northern Illinois and a near 10-cent uptick at MISO Indiana in trades reported in the low $30s at both hubs. July power was transacted in the high $30s to the low $40s across the three hubs.

In the South, a $1 decline steered front-month price activity to the low $50s at ERCOT North, as hub action for July power spanned the low into mid-$110s.

In the West, Mid-Columbia June was up more than $1 on the day in the high $10s, while prompt-month power quoted in the high $30s was 45 cents softer against the broad uptrend at Palo Verde but almost 30 cents stronger at South Path-15. Power for July delivery was valued in the low $30s at Mid-Columbia and the low $50s elsewhere in the region.

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Market prices and included industry data are current as of the time of publication and are subject to change. For more detailed market data, including power and natural gas index prices, as well as forwards and futures, visit our Commodities pages.